March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 234-180, +41.86 units (Through Round 2)
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March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 234-180, +41.86 units (Through Round 2)
Get the FREE BettingPros sports betting app and start making winning bets with expert advice and picks >>
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Xavier vs. Texas
Xavier Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Souley Boum |
16.3 |
5.5 |
3.7 |
21.8 |
20.0 |
25.5 |
2.0 |
4.6 |
| Colby Jones |
14.6 |
6.9 |
3.6 |
21.5 |
18.2 |
25.1 |
1.1 |
2.5 |
| Jack Nunge |
12.4 |
8.5 |
1.6 |
20.9 |
14.0 |
22.5 |
0.9 |
2.2 |
| Adam Kunkel |
11.2 |
3.7 |
2.8 |
14.9 |
14.0 |
17.7 |
1.8 |
1.2 |
| Zach Freemantle |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jerome Hunter |
10.2 |
7.0 |
1.4 |
17.2 |
11.6 |
18.6 |
0.0 |
2.2 |
| Desmond Claude |
5.5 |
3.6 |
1.8 |
9.1 |
7.3 |
10.9 |
0.4 |
1.0 |
| Cesare Edwards |
2.1 |
2.1 |
0.2 |
4.2 |
2.3 |
4.4 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
| Kyky Tandy |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Kam Craft |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Dieonte Miles |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Elijah Tucker |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Bradley Colbert |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Bob Nunge |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Ian Sabourin |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Michael Wolf |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Texas Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Marcus Carr |
16.3 |
3.3 |
4.4 |
19.6 |
20.7 |
24.0 |
2.2 |
2.6 |
| Sir’Jabari Rice |
14.4 |
4.4 |
2.4 |
18.7 |
16.7 |
21.1 |
1.9 |
3.0 |
| Tyrese Hunter |
10.5 |
3.4 |
2.7 |
14.0 |
13.3 |
16.7 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
| Timmy Allen |
11.4 |
6.7 |
4.1 |
18.2 |
15.6 |
22.3 |
0.1 |
2.4 |
| Dylan Disu |
12.3 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
18.8 |
13.8 |
20.3 |
0.4 |
1.4 |
| Christian Bishop |
3.7 |
2.3 |
0.6 |
6.0 |
4.2 |
6.5 |
0.0 |
0.7 |
| Arterio Morris |
2.6 |
0.9 |
0.3 |
3.5 |
3.0 |
3.8 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
| Brock Cunningham |
2.6 |
2.0 |
0.8 |
4.7 |
3.4 |
5.5 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
| Dillon Mitchell |
2.4 |
2.3 |
0.2 |
4.7 |
2.6 |
4.9 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
| Alex Anamekwe |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cole Bott |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Gavin Perryman |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Xavier vs. Texas Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Xavier
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Colby Jones Over 2.5 Assists |
-145 |
1.45 |
1 |
DK |
| Souley Boum Over 2.5 Assists |
-155 |
1.55 |
1 |
UB |
| Adam Kunkel Under 11.5 Points |
100 |
1 |
1 |
MGM |
| Jack Nunge Over 6.5 Rebounds |
-143 |
1.43 |
1 |
UB |
Texas
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Sir’Jabari Rice Over 1.5 Assists |
110 |
1 |
1.1 |
DK |
| Dylan Disu Under 13.5 Points |
105 |
1 |
1.05 |
DK |
| Sir’Jabari Rice Under 2.5 3Ps |
-135 |
1.35 |
1 |
DK |
| Tyrese Hunter Over 2.5 Assists |
145 |
1 |
1.45 |
MGM |
| Timmy Allen Over 3.5 Assists |
105 |
1 |
1.05 |
MGM |
| Dylan Disu Over 1.5 Assists |
165 |
1 |
1.65 |
DK |
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