Our fourth and final Major of the 2022 season winds down to a close on Sunday as Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland are currently tied for first place at 16-under par with a four-stroke lead over Cameron Smith and Cameron Young. Below, I give out my two best head-to-head bets for the fourth round of the 2022 Open Championship.
These plays are one unit each, or 1% of your betting bankroll.
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Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Rd 4: Rory McIlroy Over Viktor Hovland (-165)
With a commanding lead at the top of the leaderboard, The Open Championship has turned into a two-horse race between Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland.
While McIlroy is certainly the square play to make out of the two, I am backing his experience to give him the final edge over Hovland. McIlroy has been in this position many times in his career as he is searching for his fifth major championship victory in his 56th appearance.
This season, McIlroy has been as dialed in as ever as he has finished inside the top-eight in all three majors prior to this week. Meanwhile, the much younger Hovland does not have nearly the same amount of experience or success as McIlroy.
Hovland has only appeared in 12 major championships prior to this week and has never finished inside the top-10. While that certainly will change this weekend, he has never had the pressure of a Sunday major while in contention.
Additionally, the metrics suggest that McIlroy is in store for a bigger Sunday than Hovland. Through the first three rounds, McIlroy ranks higher than Hovland in SG Around the Green, SG Approach the Green, and SG Tee to Green.
I believe this iron play will be the difference maker on Sunday, along with his experience, and Rory will capture his fifth major championship.
Rd 4: Tommy Fleetwood Over Dustin Johnson (+100)
This play is more of a fade of Dustin Johnson than It is a backing of Tommy Fleetwood. Currently, Johnson is in seventh place at 10-under par after shooting a 71 on Saturday.
Johnson’s metrics suggest that regression is looming for him this weekend, and I think Saturday was just the beginning of that. Despite being in seventh place, Johnson ranks just 47th amongst the remaining field in SG Putting, 70th in SG Around the Green, 21st in SG Approach the Green, 18th in SG Off the Tee, and 35th in SG Tee to Green.
In comparison, Fleetwood ranks higher than Johnson in SG Putting, SG Around the Green, SG Off the Tee, SG Tee to Green, SG Total, and Greens in Regulation percentage. Despite outperforming Johnson in all of those categories, he sits one stroke behind him entering Sunday.
That being said, I think Johnson will drop further down the leaderboard while Fleetwood will look to secure a top-10 finish.
Best of luck!
Golfer Profiles
- Tigers Woods
- Scottie Scheffler
- Justin Thomas
- Xander Schauffele
- Jon Rahm
- Collin Morikawa
- Rory McIlroy
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Cameron Smith
- Dustin Johnson
- Will Zalatoris
- Cameron Smith
- Jordan Spieth
- Shane Lowry
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Viktor Hovland
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Patrick Cantlay
Golf Betting Advice & Strategy
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- General Golf Betting Strategies
- Advanced Golf Betting Strategies
- How to Make Golf Head-to-Head First-Round Bets
- How to Make Golf First-Round Leader Bets
- How to Make Golf Make/Miss Cut Bets
- How to Make a Futures Golf Bet
- How To Bet Major Golf Tournaments
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