After hitting on over 56% of our picks in our daily college basketball picks column, we are back to provide insight on the NCAA tournament.
Like always, March Madness kicks off with the First Four games, with two matchups of No. 11 seeds and two of No. 16 seeds playing their way into the 64-team field. These First Four games at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio, often provide intense drama and serve as the perfect appetizer to the marathon of Round of 64 games we will consume on Thursday and Friday.
YTD: 49-38-1
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Best College Basketball Bets for the First Four
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
#16 Southeast Missouri State vs. #16 Texas A&M Corpus Christi: O/U 152.5
We often wonder about teams’ nerves when playing in the First Four, as these No. 16 seeds are not accustomed to playing on national television. However, Corpus Christi returns 71.7% of its minutes production (11th-best in D-I) from a team that played in this same game last year, so we especially like its chances of settling into the game quickly.
Southeast Missouri State is the newcomer in this matchup, making just its second-ever NCAA Tournament appearance. However, the Redhawks will likely turn this game into a breakneck pace, as they average 75.1 possessions per game and play at the second-fastest pace among all D-I teams. The Redhawks attack the rim in transition with reckless abandon and led the Ohio Valley Conference in free throw rate per field goal attempts (40.9). Their style of play fits right into Texas A&M Corpus Christi’s weaknesses, as the Islanders ranked ninth in the Southland in free throw rate allowed. In addition, Texas A&M Corpus Christi does not protect the rim well (53.8% 2-point percentage allowed ranked worst among all Southland teams), while Southeast Missouri State shot an OVC-best 54.7% from inside the arc.
Corpus Christi’s guards are lightning-fast and are a nuisance to defend one-on-one. That is a big reason the Islanders ranked as the Southland’s best 3-point shooting team (40.1% in league play) and tops in adjusted offensive efficiency. In addition, if they have the lead late, which oddsmakers project with a four-point spread, they make 80% of their free throws as a team (second in D-I).
We would be even more confident in this wager if Southeast Missouri State guard Aquan Smart is again ruled out. Smart missed the team’s conference championship game with a foot injury, and he is the team’s best perimeter defender, ranking in the top three in the conference in steal percentage. He has had ten days to recover since last playing on March 4, but there is still no word on his return.
The Over is 21-12 in SEMO’s 33 games this season and has cashed in 11 of its 18 games as an underdog. Additionally, the Over is 17-6 when the Islanders are favored, and we expect another shootout to kick off the NCAA Tournament.
Bet: SEMO-Texas A&M CC Over 152.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Leans
Pittsburgh-Mississippi State Under 132.5
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.