In a battle between two teams that have performed poorly relative to expectations, something has to give. Both the Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans will be looking to build some momentum as they attempt to clean up their games and string together consecutive wins over the final three-quarters of the 2019 NFL Season. Two teams with high-caliber quarterbacks and an elite wide receiver will duke it out in what could very well be the marquee matchup of the weekend.
- Opening Lines: The line for this contest opened at -4 for Houston. The over/under total opened at 49 points. The point spread has moved to -5. The over/under has yet to see any movement.
- Current Line: Houston -5
- O/U: 49
- Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
- Start Time: 1:00 PM EST, Sunday, October 6th
- Last Meeting: Atlanta defeated Houston 48-21 – October 4th, 2015
The Atlanta Falcons have opened the season with a whimper. 2019 was expected to be a rebound year. With the Falcons set to return of their trio of Pro Bowlers in Deion Jones, Keanu Neal, and Devonta Freeman, expectations were set high. All three stars returned, but Keanu Neal has already been lost for the season. Freeman has looked like a shell of himself for the majority of the season. The Falcons now sit at 1-3 and have to be rueing their controversial 2019 NFL Draft haul that saw them reach on multiple prospects. While owner Arthur Blank and general manager Thomas Dimitroff’s personnel moves were lauded just a few years ago, their inability to bring in talent to put them over the top over the past 20 games has been confounding. Perhaps this is a front office and ownership group still reeling from their epic 2017 Super Bowl collapse. Regardless of what it may be, the whole organization needs to turn the page quickly if they are to come anywhere close to their aspirations for this season. While the Falcons have the schedule to be a double-digit win team despite their poor 1-3 start, the Falcons’ team we have seen through the first four weeks of the 2019 campaign may struggle to achieve even a .500 mark. At just 17.5 per contest, Atlanta has scored the sixth-fewest points per game on the season.
The Houston Texans had an interesting offseason. They sat back and watched as the Philadelphia Eagles leapfrogged them and Andre Dillard was stolen one pick prior to their selection. With offensive tackle on the mind they then proceeded to reach on a talented right tackle that was projected as a day two pick at best. The Texans fell in love with his ability to bookend either side of the line, but quickly learned he was going to have a tough transition coming from a smaller school in Alabama State. The team refused to re-sign their former No. 1 overall pick in Jadeveon Clowney to a contract worthy of his talent and shipped the oft banged up edge rusher to the Seattle Seahawks for a pittance (Clowney refused a trade to Miami that would have netted the Texans Laremy Tunsil, Kenny Stills, and more). With coach Bill O’Brien acting as the team’s general manager and already enamoured with the idea of Tunsil and Stills on the roster, he proceeded to further mortgage the franchise’s future by giving up two first’s and a second for the young left tackle and wide receiver. The Texans are 2-2 on the season, but the argument can be made that they should be 4-0. Their offensive line is still a glaring issue, but the defense has found a way to keep the team competitive. The Texans’ defense has relinquished the tenth-fewest points per game on the season. Houston has a tough road ahead of them schedule-wise but has the talent to crack the double-digit win barrier.
- The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four contests between these two teams.
- Atlanta is 1-3 ATS on the season.
- Atlanta is 0-2 ATS on the road this season.
- Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests following a loss ATS.
- Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in their last five Week 5 contests.
- Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in their last five contests.
- Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in their last seven road contests.
- Houston is 2-2 ATS on the season.
- Houston is 0-2 ATS on the road this season.
- Houston is 5-0-1 ATS in their last six contests following a loss ATS.
- Houston is 4-1 ATS in their last five home contests against teams with losing road records.
- Houston is 3-1-1 in their last five contests following a straight up loss.
- Houston is 1-4 ATS in their last five home contests.
- Houston is 1-13 ATS in their last 14 Week 5 contests.
- Under is 6-2 in Atlanta’s last eight Week 5 contests.
- Under is 5-2 in Atlanta’s last seven contests following a double digit home loss.
- Under is 5-2 in Atlanta’s last seven contests following a straight up loss.
- Under is 5-2 in Atlanta’s last seven contests following a loss ATS.
- Under is 6-0 in Houston’s last six home contests.
- Under is 6-1 in Houston’s last seven contests against teams with losing records.
- Under is 5-1 in Houston’s last six contests.
- Under is 5-2 in Houston’s last seven home contests against teams with losing road records.
- Under is 7-3 in Houston’s last 10 Week 5 contests.
Houston Texans first half -3 (-121)
Atlanta has not been very strong in the first half of games this season. They have allowed 17.8 points per game, the Texans have allowed just 8.2 per contest. Though both teams have struggled offensively in the first half this season, Houston is the superior team and is projected to be ahead at half time during this home contest. The win probability outweighs the heavy juice on the spread. There appears to be value here as the juice suggests this line will likely be -3.5 by game time.
Will Fuller over 55.5 receiving yards (-114)
With Kenny Stills banged up and the Texans facing one of the worst secondaries in the league through four contests, Will Fuller appears to be in line for a big day. Fuller has seen six plus targets per game over the last three weeks and may be more heavily involved downfield in Week 5. Excluding Week 1 when Kirk Cousins attempted just 10 passes, the Falcons have allowed 89.25 receiving yards per game to the starting caliber wide receivers they have faced (this excludes Mack Hollins and Zach Pascal). Always a home run threat, Fuller can surpass this total on just one reception. Lock this one in before the juice goes up.
Austin Hooper over 50.5 receiving yards (-114)
In case you didn’t know, Austin Hooper has looked like one of the top tight ends in the league through the first four games of the season. Averaging 76.8 receiving yards per game, Hooper has cleared this total in three of his four contests this season. This is one of the top props of the weekend. Hooper has 34 receptions since Week 14 of the 2018 season (fifth-most). The Houston Texans have allowed 51 receptions (second-most) to tight end over that same time period. Lock this one in before the juice skyrockets. The odds for 50.5 at PointsBet are offered as high as 56.5 elsewhere. There is inherent value in this total.
This should be an easy victory for the Houston Texans. Whether or not they cover the spread will likely be largely dependent on what line you are able to lock in for this contest. The line has already moved a full point and may see more movement by game time. The Atlanta Falcons are going to have issues stopping the explosive offense of the Texans. This contest is projected to be settled by less than one touchdown. However, it is almost as likely to be decided by a touchdown or more. This is a line to lock in at PointsBet before the public pushes the juice and potentially moves this line to -6.
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