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Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys NFL Sports Betting Guide

by October 5, 2019
Aaron Rodgers

Two of the NFC’s best teams will look to bounce back after Week 4 losses. This game has all the ingredients to be the contest of the week, with two well-rounded teams looking to gain an early advantage in the NFC standings.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: FanDuel had the odds open as Cowboys -3; O/U 48. The spread has barely moved, but the total has dropped 1.5 points.
  • Current Line: Cowboys -3.5
  • O/U: 46.5
  • Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
  • Start Time: 4:25 pm ET
  • Television: FOX
  • Last Meeting: October 8, 2017 – Green Bay went to Dallas and defeated the Cowboys 35-31

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Overview

Despite their record, the Packers have not looked nearly as good as many expected they would coming into the season. The offense has been hit or miss and has looked both excellent and terrible within the same games. Against Minnesota just two weeks ago, the Packers jumped out to a 21-0 lead but then went stagnant and very nearly lost. In their loss to the Eagles, they jumped out to a quick 10-0 lead but then failed to continue the success and played nearly the entire rest of the game from behind. To add to their woes, Davante Adams’ status for this week is uncertain, while Jamal Williams has still yet to practice due to a concussion.

One area where the team has looked particularly good is on the defensive end. The Packers are tied for fourth in the league in turnover differential, even after failing to force a turnover in Week 4 against the Eagles. They are also giving up the third-fewest passing yards per game at 188.

The Packers’ defense will certainly be tested this week as the Cowboys come into the game ranked in the top five in the league in rushing, passing, and total yards. Ezekiel Elliott and the stout Cowboys’ offensive line have a considerable advantage against the Packers front seven and will look to bounce back after a dreadful rushing performance against the Saints last Sunday. If Dallas is able to jump out to an early lead they may be able to drain the clock much to the frustration of the Green Bay faithful.

Dallas’ defense is giving up the third-fewest points per game at 14, and while their rushing defense is in the middle of the league rankings, the Packers are ranked in the bottom quarter of the league with 86.3 yards per game.

Trends

  • Both teams are 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS this season.
  • The Packers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against Dallas.
  • The total has gone over in five of the Cowboys’ last seven games.
  • The Packers are 2-9 SU in their last 11 road games.
  • The total has gone over in all five of the most recent contests between the two teams when playing in Dallas.
  • The Cowboys are 7-0 SU in their last seven home games.
  • The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played in October.
  • The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games played in October.

Prop Bet

UNDER 46.5
While the Cowboys’ offense looks great on paper, a lot of their production has come against the worst teams in the NFL. Last week in New Orleans, they struggled and had a hard time running the ball effectively, which is something they should look to correct this week. The Packers’ offense is all over the place. One drive they look outstanding, the next they look terrible. With Davante Adams a question mark, Aaron Rodgers may be missing his favorite target which points toward more struggles for the offense. Both defenses are solid, but Zeke should be able to get his yards this week, and the Cowboys should be able to keep the clock running.

Bottom Line

It would seem the Cowboys have the advantage in this game, playing at home and having a great run offense against a weak rush defense. And yet there are still questions about how good Dallas really is. Though the scoreboard doesn’t express it, they looked bad against the Dolphins just two weeks ago, and their play against New Orleans only continued to cause concern. Though Aaron Rodgers could be without Davante Adams, I think that this will be such a low-scoring game that he will be able to keep Green Bay in it until the fourth quarter. I think Dallas pulls off the victory but if forced to pick on the spread, I like the Packers getting a field goal.

Pick: Packers +3.5 (-110)

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Philip Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Philip, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.