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Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers NFL Sports Betting Guide

by October 5, 2019

Two teams suffering from disappointing starts to the 2019 season clash in LA on Sunday in an AFC West contest. A loss could already put a final nail in the Broncos’ season just five weeks in. Meanwhile, the Chargers will look to use Melvin Gordon who didn’t see the field last week despite ending his holdout.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: FanDuel had the odds open as Chargers -6.5; O/U 44. Not much has changed since then.
  • Current Line: Chargers -6.5
  • O/U: 44.5
  • Location: Dignity Health Sports Park, Carson, California
  • Start Time: 4:05 pm ET
  • Television: CBS
  • Last Meeting: December 30, 2018 – The Chargers defeated the Broncos 23-9 at Mile High.

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Overview

The Chargers’ offense ranks third in passing yards and fifth in total yards, and yet the performance as a whole this season has felt like a disappointment. There are two big reasons, injuries and the Melvin Gordon holdout. The good news for LA is that Gordon’s holdout is over, and he should be all the Chargers need to turn their run game around. The bad news is the team is still relatively unhealthy. Mike Williams’ status for this week is unknown, Dontrelle Inman was placed on IR, and Melvin Ingram III is expected to miss some time with a hamstring injury.

The Broncos got some terrible news this week that just added on to the already terrible season that was taking place in Denver. Bradley Chubb has been placed on IR. It’s a huge blow to a Broncos’ defense that has yet to cause a turnover this season and has had two of their losses come on field goals that turned the game outcome from a victory to a loss as time expired.

The offense for Denver has put up decent yardage numbers this season, currently sitting in the middle third of the league in rushing, passing, and total yards, but they have failed to put points on the board. The offense is ranked 27 of 32 in points per game and has only scored over 20 points once all season. They’re also tied for second-worst in the NFL with a -5 turnover differential.

Trends

  • The Broncos are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games.
  • The Chargers are 1-2-1 ATS this season.
  • The total has gone under in six of Denver’s last seven games on the road.
  • The total has gone under in five of LA’s last seven games at home.
  • The total has gone under in six of the Chargers’ last eight games.
  • The total has gone under in 11 of Denver’s last 13 games.
  • The Broncos are 0-8 SU in their last eight games.

Prop Bet

Chargers win by 1-13 Points (+140)
The Broncos are 0-4 but have only lost one game all season by more than one-possession, and even in that game only lost by 11. Bradley Chubb is out for the season, but the Broncos should be able to stick with the Chargers for most of the game. I don’t see any way they pull out the victory, but I also have a hard time seeing the Chargers blowing them away.

Bottom Line

The Chargers are getting healthier, but the Broncos’ offense also looked as good as it has all season last week against Jacksonville. The loss of Bradley Chubb is obviously huge, but with all the injuries on the offensive side of the ball for the Chargers, the Broncos should be able to keep this one close, even with Melvin Gordon expected to see a lot of action this week. For the Chargers’ defense, Melvin Ingram III’s injury could be the difference-maker and a key reason why the Broncos hang around. The Chargers will win, but these are two teams that always find themselves in one-possession games. I’ll take this at +6.5, but it’s definitely worth it to buy the half point.

Pick: Broncos +6.5 (-110)

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Philip Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Philip, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.