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These odds were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook on October 4, 2019.
As one of just three undefeated teams left in the NFL, the Kansas City Chiefs welcome the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football in a key early-season AFC matchup. The Chiefs proved last week that they could win with far from their best foot forward, a 34-30 win on the road in Detroit in which they turned the ball over three times. In a rematch of one of last year’s AFC divisional-round matchups, let’s take a deeper look to see where we can find an edge.
- Opening Lines: The Chiefs opened up at -9.5, and the over/under opened at 55.5. The numbers have moved slightly in favor of the over and the Chiefs.
- Current Line: Chiefs -11
- O/U: 56
- Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
- Start Time: 8:20 pm ET
- Television: NBC
- Last Meeting: January 12, 2019 – Kansas City defeated Indianapolis 31-13 at Arrowhead Stadium the AFC Divisional Round
As strong as the Chiefs’ offense has been, ranking second in the NFL in total yards (474.8) and first in passing yards (373), their defense has quietly been abysmal. This Chiefs’ defense ranks 30th in total yards allowed per game at 408.5 and 31st in rushing yards allowed at 149.8 per game. Their running back by committee duo of LeSean McCoy and Damien Williams has also stalled as both have found themselves on and off the injury report during this first quarter of the season.
Luckily for Kansas City, however, they have a video-game-like player under center in Patrick Mahomes who has led this offense to an NFL record 25 points in 25 straight games. Mahomes is off to a blistering start in 2019 yet again, leading the NFL in passing with 377.5 yards per game, over 45 yards ahead of his closest competition. His passer rating of 126.3 also leads the NFL by an increasingly large margin as the season turns into form.
As the post-Andrew Luck era continues to develop in Indianapolis, quarterback Jacoby Brissett has played efficiently to start the season as the game plans have largely been focused around the running attack. Led by Marlon Mack, the Colts rank seventh in rushing yards per game at 132.5 as they let Brisset get more up to speed with the offense. Through his first four games as the defacto starter for the Colts, Brissett has thrown for at least two touchdowns per game and is second in the NFL with ten.
The Colts are looking to bounce back from their own performance last week, a 24-31 loss at home to the Raiders. The Colts did come within a touchdown with five minutes left in the game, but a late pick-six by the Raiders sealed the deal on what was an overall bizarrely poor performance from this Indianapolis team. I expect Colts head coach Frank Reich to have his team ready for what will surely be their toughest post-Luck test to date.
- Over is 3-1 in the Colts four games to start the season.
- Colts are 8-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record.
- Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games in October.
- Over is 15-7 in Colts last 22 games on a grass surface.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Chiefs last six games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in Chiefs last seven games following an ATS loss.
Through four games, all against better defenses than the Chiefs, the Colts have scored an average of 23.5 points per game. Following the unit’s worst performance of the season against the Raiders last week, there will almost certainly be a game plan in place to exploit Kansas City’s poor rushing defense which should, in turn, allow Brissett to find more downfield targets. While it is concerning the Colts will once again be without stud wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, I think this offense still has the firepower to score at least three touchdowns as they will likely be forced to play from behind. Add a field goal or two from Adam Vinatieri, and I like the Colts going over on their team total of 22.5.
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