After Minnesota’s struggles against Chicago, and how well Daniel Jones has marshaled the New York Giants’ offense the last two weeks, this contest has taken on added intrigue. A contest that likely would have seen opening odds in the -6.5 on Minnesota range instead opened at -4. The sharps and early bettors almost immediately moved the line to -4.5. This contest promises to be much more exciting than one would have thought entering the season. Let’s dive in.
- Opening Lines: The line for this contest opened at -4 for Minnesota. The over/under total opened at 45.5 points. The point spread has now moved up to 5.5 at all sportsbooks. The over/under total has seen a slight drop to 45 points.
- Current Line: Minnesota -5.5
- O/U: 45
- Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
- Start Time: 1:00 PM EST, Sunday, October 6th
- Last Meeting: Minnesota defeated New York 24-10 – October 3rd, 2016
Minnesota looks like one of the stronger teams in the league through their first four games, but struggles against divisional opponents have caused some question marks. They have looked as dominant as expected against teams that have struggled out of the gate, but their Kirk Cousins-led offense has wilted against the stronger defenses of their NFC North rivals. Kirk Cousins has one win in which he attempted only 10 passes. In the other, he had 21 pass attempts and 15 completions in a sub-200 passing yard effort. In the Vikings losses, he has averaged 34 attempts per contest. The Vikings can get by on their defense and stellar run game, but as defenses shift their focus to stopping Dalvin Cook, Cousins is going to need to show some growth for the Vikings to have the success they are striving for this season. Minnesota lost some key pieces during free agency in Sheldon Richardson and Latavius Murray. Murray was expertly replaced by rookie Alexander Mattison while the Vikings attempted to hit a home run with the raw, but talented, Armon Watts in the sixth round. They spent a large portion of their draft capital bringing in offensive line help. Even their offensive skill players in Mattison and Irv Smith Jr. are some of the best blockers at their positions in their draft class. The Vikings have the schedule to make it to the postseason but are going to need to be at the top of their game to do so.
The New York Giants have seen a quick turnaround under the guidance of rookie quarterback Daniel Jones. The rookie signal-caller has proved to be a steadying hand for a struggling Giants team. He has held the offense together in Saquon Barkley’s brief absence and will be welcoming Golden Tate to the lineup in Week 5 against the Vikings. Giants had an eventful offseason that saw them deal away Odell Beckham Jr. and Olivier Vernon to the Cleveland Browns in separate moves. In return, they most notably brought in Jabril Peppers, two first-round picks (Dexter Lawrence was selected with the 2019 first-rounder), and Kevin Zeitler. Perhaps due to the loss of Odell Beckham, the Giants spent wildly to bring in Golden Tate. General manager Dave Gettleman was ridiculed for selecting Daniel Jones at sixth-overall when many believed he would still be available at No. 17, and perhaps even at the start of the second round. Gettleman marches to the beat of his own drum and should be commended for that. He understood that he had made the investments in the offensive line to help a quarterback with first-round tools like Jones play to his potential. Ridiculed for passing on quarterbacks like Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, and Josh Allen in favor of Saquon Barkley, Jones already looks like the better call with just two games under his belt. For someone whose moves are picked apart with regularity, Gettleman had a very strong 2019 NFL Draft haul. Now 2-2 on the season, the Giants have the schedule-based opportunity to shock the world with an 8-8 record or better.
- The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five contests between these two teams.
- The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five contests between these two teams.
- Minnesota is 2-2 ATS this season.
- Minnesota is 0-2 ATS on the road this season.
- New York is 2-2 ATS this season.
- New York is 1-1 ATS at home.
- Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in their last seven contests following a loss ATS.
- Minnesota is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven October contests.
- Minnesota is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 Week 5 contests.
- Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in their last six road contests.
- New York is 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine contests against the NFC.
- New York is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 Week 5 contests.
- New York is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home contests.
- New York is 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 contests following a straight up win.
- Under is 5-0 in Minnesota’s last five road contests.
- Under is 7-0 in Minnesota’s last nine contests against the NFC.
- Under is 5-1 in Minnesota’s last six contests.
- Under is 13-6 in Minnesota’s last 19 October contests.
- Over is 13-4 in Minnesota’s last 17 Week 5 contests.
- Over is 5-1 in New York’s last six contests against the NFC.
- Over is 5-2 in New York’s last seven contests following a win ATS.
- Under is 15-7 in New York’s last 22 home contests.
- Under is 12-5 in New York’s last 17 contests following a straight up win.
Dalvin Cook over 75 rushing yards (-239)
Dalvin Cook has cleared 110 rushing yards in three of his four contests this season. His lone game under this mark came against the intimidating front seven of the Khalil Mack-led Chicago Bears. Cook ranks second in the NFL with 410 rushing yards (5.8 yards per carry), and with 249 yards after contact (3.5 per attempt). Dalvin Cook is a smart bet to go over this total against a New York Giants team that has relinquished two games of over 120 rushing yards at 4.74 yards per carry or more to the running back position. The lead backs on those two teams? Ronald Jones and Frank Gore. Suffice it to say the win probability of this prop far outweighs the juice one has to eat for a full unit return.
Minnesota Vikings first half moneyline (3 way) (-162)
A -162 first half, 3 way moneyline seems to present fantastic value. If you are betting moneyline you are likely not looking for a push to begin with. With that said, the odds on New York suggests that the Giants may be favored to be up at the half. -165 for two way vs only -170 for three way makes little sense unless 888sport does not want to get hammered by Giants’ first-half bettors. However, the fact that a -5.5 full game spread is -3.5 for first half should give us the confidence we need that the Vegas line setters indeed believe the Vikings will be up at half time. Lock it in.
The line for this contest is quickly approaching stay away territory. -4 appeared to be an immediate action line, and -4.5 still presented value. In yet another reminder that early wagering often allows one to find the true values, the line for this contest now sits at a more prohibitive -5.5. The total for this contest has gone down, and the spread on the favorite has gone up. This suggests that Vegas now has a cushion on favorite bettors in relation to their original projected score for this contest. With that said, there is a semblance of value until the number hits -6. Lock this one in as soon as possible if you still believe in value at -5.5. If you do not, the suggestion is to try the -3.5 for -145 alternative line at PointsBet.
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