Want an idea of how much parity there has been in college basketball this season? Of the six major conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12, and SEC), the North Carolina Tar Heels are the only team undefeated in league play, and the calendar has not even turned to February yet. The Tar Heels will get two tests this week, one on the road at Georgia Tech and the other at home from rival Duke, so it will be interesting to see if they can make it through this week unscathed.
Today’s college basketball slate is not exactly “Big Monday-esque” in nature, but two Final Four contenders are in action as Duke and Houston play road games against league rivals. We preview one of those team’s games while also taking a look at a SWAC contest that we expect to be a defensive struggle.
Read on for Monday’s College Basketball best bets.
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Monday's College Basketball Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
#12 Duke (-3) @ Virginia Tech | O/U 146 (-110/-110)
Duke and Virginia Tech split their two regular season meetings last year, and each had at least 147 total points scored. In fact, their last three meetings have exceeded this projected total. This has us overlooking the fact that five of Virginia Tech's last six home night games against AP-ranked opponents have seen 146 or fewer points scored.
Per Evan Miyakawa, Duke's five-man lineup of Kyle Filipowski, Caleb Foster, Jared McCain, Mark Mitchell and Jeremy Roach ranks in the top 10 in the country in adjusted efficiency margin. And while the Blue Devils rank first in ACC play in adjusted offensive efficiency and turnover rate (13.4%), their defense is further behind, ranking eighth in effective field goal percentage and ninth in 3-point percentage allowed (35.2%).
Virginia Tech's motion offense has been on fire during its three-game winning streak, averaging 83.7 points per game and scoring 1.09 points per possession in every game in that span. The Hokies are coming off a blistering 1.40 points per possession game against Georgia Tech, and the Over has cashed in every game during their winning streak. The Over has also been 21-10 in Virginia Tech's ACC games since the start of last season, and Mike Young's complex offensive sets are extremely difficult to prepare for, especially with just one day off.
Some Duke trends also point to the Over cashing, as it is 7-2 in the nine games the Blue Devils have had equal rest as their opponents and has cashed in eight of 14 games following a win this season. Lastly, the Hokies shoot the second-highest free-throw percentage as a team this season (80.3%), which should help the Over in what should be a close contest throughout.
Bet: Over 146 (-110)
Alabama State @ Texas Southern (-5): O/U 136 (-108/-112)
As Texas Southern has done for the last several years, it does not mind taking its beatings in non-conference play through mid-December, knowing it only makes it stronger in SWAC play. The Tigers challenged themselves against teams that play much different styles, from Purdue's heavy post-action with Zach Edey to Virginia's often impenetrable packline defense. And though the Tigers allowed 82-plus points four times in non-conference play, we are not undervaluing their defense, as they are the SWAC's No. 1 rated team in effective field goal percentage defense and 2-point percentage allowed (40.9%).
Texas Southern's interior defense will be its best angle to knock off the 5-1 Hornets, especially since Alabama State is the second-to-worst 2-point shooting team in the country, making 40.3% of its shots inside the arc. Thus, the Hornets will likely have to settle for perimeter jump shots, which is not their forte, as they are shooting 29.1% from beyond the arc through six league games. Alabama State is tied atop the league standings because of an elite defense, and we expect the Under to cash for the fifth time in its eighth league game.
Bet: Under 136 (-112)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.