I have recently created my own 2022 NFL player projections, which can be used to help you make bets in the season-long player market.
In this piece, you'll find my wide receiver projections as well as all the bets I like at the position. For more, check out my best season-long player props.
Free Content
- 2022 Season-Long Player Props: Strategy Guide
- 2022 Season-Long Player Props: Best Bets (Out Soon)
Premium Content
Some notes on my projections and process:
I have recently created my own 2022 NFL player projections, which can be used to help you make bets in the season-long player market.
In this piece, you'll find my wide receiver projections as well as all the bets I like at the position. For more, check out my best season-long player props.
Free Content
- 2022 Season-Long Player Props: Strategy Guide
- 2022 Season-Long Player Props: Best Bets (Out Soon)
Premium Content
Some notes on my projections and process:
- I recommend betting unders in the season-long prop market, not overs. In other words, don't bet a whole bunch of overs just because my projections point in that direction. That would be a bad idea. I touch more on unders vs. overs in my overall guide to betting 2022 NFL season-long player props.
- My projections are not the official BettingPros or FantasyPros projections, which are entirely independent from mine. These are just my pseudo-random projections. For the official BettingPros projections, see our season-long prop bet cheat sheet, which compares our projections with the current lines in the market to highlight the props that offer the most value. It's a great tool. For the official FantasyPros projections, check out our season-long consensus projections page, which provides statistical forecasts for almost every skill-position player in the league.
- My projections are solely to help me - and now you - navigate the season-long prop market. That's it. I wouldn't use them for making draft decisions in fantasy football, where it makes more sense to focus on upside than median outcome. For the prop market, though, the median is what matters most.
- With the prop market in mind, I know that I don't need these projections to be perfect, so I haven't tried to make them perfect. I just need them to be good enough to be directionally correct. In other words, I won't be obsessively updating these projections every day.
- The season-long prop market is not overwhelmingly robust. You can find hundreds of wagers to make, but very few of them are for players who aren't relevant in fantasy. You won't find props for No. 2 quarterbacks, most No. 2 running backs, many Nos. 2-3 wide receivers and even some No. 1 tight ends. As a result, I don't care much about being accurate with those players. I'm not ignoring their projections, but I'm also not investing extra time into working out the nuances of their projections. That would be a -EV (expected value) use of my time, especially since I can't bet into any market to profit from my work.
2022 Season-Long NFL Wide Receiver Projections
Projections updated as of Aug. 22
| Player |
Rec |
ReYd |
ReTD |
RuYd |
RuTD |
| Justin Jefferson |
102.3 |
1474.8 |
9.0 |
27.3 |
0.1 |
| Cooper Kupp |
116.6 |
1453.1 |
10.7 |
27.6 |
0.1 |
| Ja’Marr Chase |
86.3 |
1342.9 |
9.9 |
53.3 |
0.3 |
| Davante Adams |
104.5 |
1265.7 |
9.1 |
2.2 |
0.0 |
| CeeDee Lamb |
92.2 |
1224.4 |
7.5 |
61.3 |
0.2 |
| Stefon Diggs |
99.4 |
1219.7 |
8.3 |
2.3 |
0.0 |
| DJ Moore |
85.7 |
1151.4 |
5.5 |
32.8 |
0.1 |
| Tee Higgins |
81.2 |
1122.0 |
7.4 |
3.6 |
0.0 |
| Tyreek Hill |
87.9 |
1100.9 |
7.6 |
65.7 |
0.5 |
| Mike Evans |
77.9 |
1079.0 |
9.7 |
1.3 |
0.0 |
| Michael Pittman |
87.0 |
1072.0 |
6.2 |
23.6 |
0.1 |
| A.J. Brown |
75.0 |
1065.4 |
7.1 |
9.3 |
0.1 |
| Keenan Allen |
99.6 |
1063.5 |
6.6 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
| Mike Williams |
70.0 |
1031.5 |
7.3 |
2.0 |
0.0 |
| Terry McLaurin |
78.0 |
1025.9 |
6.2 |
4.9 |
0.0 |
| Brandin Cooks |
84.5 |
1008.0 |
5.4 |
13.0 |
0.1 |
| D.K. Metcalf |
72.0 |
990.2 |
6.2 |
2.2 |
0.0 |
| Deebo Samuel |
70.2 |
978.2 |
5.2 |
313.0 |
4.0 |
| Darnell Mooney |
74.4 |
958.7 |
4.8 |
21.2 |
0.1 |
| Diontae Johnson |
88.1 |
957.2 |
5.4 |
29.0 |
0.1 |
| Jerry Jeudy |
70.6 |
956.7 |
5.5 |
20.8 |
0.0 |
| Amari Cooper |
76.4 |
941.1 |
6.2 |
2.8 |
0.0 |
| Jaylen Waddle |
86.2 |
932.0 |
5.7 |
36.7 |
0.2 |
| Marquise Brown |
73.6 |
927.5 |
6.3 |
14.4 |
0.0 |
| Courtland Sutton |
65.0 |
925.4 |
6.1 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
| Tyler Lockett |
70.4 |
915.2 |
4.9 |
8.2 |
0.1 |
| Gabriel Davis |
60.2 |
902.2 |
7.3 |
1.5 |
0.0 |
| DeVonta Smith |
63.6 |
896.5 |
5.7 |
21.6 |
0.0 |
| Michael Thomas |
76.9 |
887.6 |
5.5 |
2.2 |
0.0 |
| Allen Robinson |
71.7 |
880.2 |
6.3 |
3.7 |
0.0 |
| Christian Kirk |
71.4 |
871.5 |
5.0 |
3.0 |
0.0 |
| Elijah Moore |
68.3 |
870.8 |
5.2 |
30.2 |
0.2 |
| Drake London |
70.0 |
867.1 |
4.6 |
1.1 |
0.0 |
| Rashod Bateman |
71.2 |
865.8 |
5.1 |
19.7 |
0.0 |
| Chris Godwin |
72.1 |
860.4 |
5.3 |
17.1 |
0.0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown |
77.4 |
836.3 |
5.1 |
46.0 |
0.4 |
| Hunter Renfrow |
79.0 |
835.5 |
5.9 |
12.2 |
0.1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster |
76.1 |
822.3 |
6.5 |
13.2 |
0.2 |
| Robert Woods |
67.6 |
804.1 |
4.4 |
28.9 |
0.2 |
| Adam Thielen |
71.7 |
796.6 |
7.3 |
2.0 |
0.0 |
| Garrett Wilson |
62.9 |
795.7 |
4.4 |
7.2 |
0.0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk |
59.7 |
794.1 |
5.1 |
23.0 |
0.2 |
| Allen Lazard |
61.1 |
788.4 |
6.1 |
18.5 |
0.1 |
| Kenny Golladay |
52.6 |
784.8 |
4.7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Chase Claypool |
58.5 |
779.8 |
3.8 |
65.9 |
0.5 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling |
45.6 |
764.3 |
5.1 |
7.7 |
0.0 |
| Tyler Boyd |
66.9 |
758.1 |
4.2 |
11.3 |
0.0 |
| Jakobi Meyers |
66.8 |
736.4 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
0.0 |
| Kadarius Toney |
64.7 |
725.4 |
4.0 |
30.5 |
0.1 |
| Chris Olave |
52.7 |
717.4 |
4.8 |
2.8 |
0.0 |
| Julio Jones |
53.9 |
691.5 |
4.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Corey Davis |
49.8 |
690.5 |
4.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Russell Gage |
59.7 |
689.6 |
4.2 |
2.3 |
0.0 |
| DJ Chark |
50.4 |
688.8 |
4.6 |
2.9 |
0.0 |
| Treylon Burks |
51.3 |
686.7 |
4.1 |
21.2 |
0.1 |
| DeVante Parker |
52.3 |
685.2 |
3.9 |
1.4 |
0.0 |
| Jahan Dotson |
55.9 |
682.1 |
4.1 |
3.6 |
0.0 |
| Nico Collins |
51.5 |
680.5 |
3.6 |
1.5 |
0.0 |
| Van Jefferson |
46.9 |
677.5 |
4.9 |
17.9 |
0.0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins |
53.5 |
677.4 |
4.6 |
2.0 |
0.0 |
| Marvin Jones |
55.1 |
664.4 |
4.7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| George Pickens |
53.2 |
663.9 |
3.9 |
0.7 |
0.0 |
| Michael Gallup |
48.9 |
662.6 |
4.6 |
3.1 |
0.0 |
| Skyy Moore |
50.8 |
658.6 |
4.5 |
7.3 |
0.1 |
| Robbie Anderson |
53.8 |
648.7 |
4.1 |
15.9 |
0.1 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones |
43.3 |
646.6 |
3.5 |
1.8 |
0.0 |
| Jarvis Landry |
53.3 |
634.9 |
3.3 |
15.8 |
0.2 |
| K.J. Osborn |
48.0 |
617.9 |
4.4 |
10.6 |
0.0 |
| Jalen Tolbert |
46.5 |
615.2 |
4.1 |
0.7 |
0.0 |
| Wan’Dale Robinson |
49.5 |
573.2 |
3.2 |
60.1 |
0.5 |
| Romeo Doubs |
46.0 |
565.3 |
4.2 |
1.6 |
0.0 |
| KJ Hamler |
41.4 |
560.8 |
3.5 |
9.7 |
0.0 |
| Mecole Hardman |
45.3 |
560.1 |
3.4 |
48.5 |
0.3 |
| Alec Pierce |
42.3 |
552.4 |
3.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Rondale Moore |
56.2 |
548.2 |
3.3 |
115.6 |
0.8 |
| Jameson Williams |
39.1 |
545.9 |
3.3 |
1.3 |
0.0 |
| A.J. Green |
37.0 |
530.2 |
3.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Christian Watson |
37.2 |
517.5 |
3.1 |
9.7 |
0.0 |
| Parris Campbell |
39.1 |
509.7 |
2.5 |
31.1 |
0.1 |
| Kendrick Bourne |
38.1 |
501.0 |
2.9 |
50.7 |
0.3 |
| Joshua Palmer |
41.0 |
499.3 |
3.8 |
1.3 |
0.0 |
| Byron Pringle |
39.9 |
498.5 |
3.1 |
1.4 |
0.0 |
| Zay Jones |
41.6 |
498.1 |
2.7 |
1.8 |
0.0 |
| Bryan Edwards |
34.3 |
489.5 |
2.7 |
1.3 |
0.0 |
| Randall Cobb |
40.0 |
484.7 |
3.8 |
5.1 |
0.0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie |
49.3 |
480.4 |
3.7 |
33.8 |
0.4 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine |
36.4 |
471.2 |
3.0 |
1.9 |
0.0 |
| Curtis Samuel |
44.0 |
468.6 |
3.3 |
72.5 |
0.6 |
| Cedrick Wilson |
38.4 |
457.6 |
2.9 |
2.4 |
0.0 |
| Terrace Marshall |
36.6 |
438.1 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
0.0 |
| Velus Jones |
35.3 |
433.2 |
2.4 |
21.4 |
0.1 |
| Sterling Shepard |
40.4 |
430.9 |
2.5 |
5.2 |
0.0 |
| Sammy Watkins |
32.3 |
410.1 |
2.5 |
5.9 |
0.0 |
| Jamison Crowder |
36.7 |
403.1 |
2.3 |
3.3 |
0.0 |
| David Bell |
33.1 |
392.0 |
2.6 |
5.4 |
0.0 |
| Devin Duvernay |
36.9 |
382.2 |
2.4 |
46.7 |
0.2 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus |
28.5 |
364.0 |
2.0 |
1.6 |
0.0 |
| D’Wayne Eskridge |
28.5 |
342.4 |
2.0 |
33.4 |
0.1 |
| Braxton Berrios |
34.8 |
336.8 |
1.8 |
37.3 |
0.3 |
| Kyle Philips |
30.2 |
335.8 |
2.4 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
| James Washington |
25.3 |
332.4 |
2.4 |
4.6 |
0.0 |
| Jalen Guyton |
22.2 |
320.9 |
2.2 |
33.4 |
0.1 |
| Nelson Agholor |
21.6 |
308.4 |
2.1 |
12.1 |
0.0 |
| Laviska Shenault |
28.6 |
298.5 |
1.7 |
55.0 |
0.2 |
| Quez Watkins |
19.7 |
284.9 |
1.2 |
2.5 |
0.0 |
| Anthony Schwartz |
22.4 |
281.9 |
1.8 |
16.4 |
0.0 |
| Tyquan Thornton |
21.0 |
279.9 |
1.7 |
3.0 |
0.0 |
| James Proche |
21.5 |
273.6 |
1.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown |
20.6 |
262.9 |
1.6 |
3.5 |
0.0 |
| Darius Slayton |
19.0 |
259.9 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
0.0 |
| Josh Reynolds |
18.7 |
252.5 |
1.6 |
3.9 |
0.0 |
| Phillip Dorsett |
19.2 |
249.4 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
0.0 |
| Laquon Treadwell |
19.1 |
248.5 |
1.4 |
2.7 |
0.0 |
| Calvin Austin |
20.2 |
236.5 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
0.0 |
| Danny Gray |
21.6 |
236.5 |
1.9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette |
17.0 |
233.0 |
1.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Ashton Dulin |
16.4 |
222.5 |
1.6 |
13.0 |
0.0 |
| Jauan Jennings |
17.8 |
221.6 |
1.6 |
1.4 |
0.0 |
| Rashard Higgins |
16.5 |
217.0 |
1.1 |
1.9 |
0.0 |
| Tylan Wallace |
16.9 |
216.4 |
1.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Dyami Brown |
14.3 |
197.6 |
1.2 |
6.2 |
0.0 |
| Marquez Callaway |
13.2 |
190.6 |
1.4 |
21.1 |
0.0 |
| Demarcus Robinson |
14.2 |
185.0 |
1.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Antoine Wesley |
14.6 |
183.0 |
1.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jalen Reagor |
17.3 |
179.3 |
1.5 |
27.2 |
0.1 |
| Khalil Shakir |
14.2 |
166.2 |
1.0 |
5.4 |
0.0 |
| Zach Pascal |
13.9 |
165.0 |
1.4 |
3.7 |
0.0 |
| N’Keal Harry |
13.5 |
162.0 |
1.1 |
3.0 |
0.0 |
| Amari Rodgers |
12.9 |
151.5 |
1.1 |
7.0 |
0.0 |
| Deonte Harty |
9.1 |
118.8 |
0.6 |
20.0 |
0.1 |
| Tre’Quan Smith |
9.3 |
114.9 |
0.9 |
3.0 |
0.0 |
| Auden Tate |
8.7 |
107.4 |
0.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Damiere Byrd |
8.2 |
98.7 |
0.4 |
6.6 |
0.0 |
| Jamal Agnew |
8.0 |
86.2 |
0.5 |
49.2 |
0.2 |
| Bo Melton |
3.5 |
39.0 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2022 Season-Long NFL Wide Receiver Prop Bets
All odds are from the following sportsbooks.
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Tyler Boyd Under 69.5 Receptions
- Projection: 66.9 receptions
- Odds: -115
- Sportsbook: BetMGM
- Date & Time: Tuesday, August 23, 10 a.m. ET
- Units: 1.15
- Notes: With WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins ahead of him on the depth chart, Boyd has a hard target cap.
Treylon Burks Under 57.5 Receptions
- Projection: 51.3 receptions
- Odds: -115
- Sportsbook: DraftKings
- Date & Time: Tuesday, August 23, 10 a.m. ET
- Units: 1.15
- Notes: In Week 2 of the preseason, Burks (5 snaps) played in a first-team five-man positional rotation with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (6), Racey McMath (6), Cody Hollister (5) and Kyle Philips (4). He can barely earn snaps, let alone targets.
Treylon Burks Under 725.5 Yards Receiving
- Projection: 686.7 yards
- Odds: -115
- Sportsbook: DraftKings
- Date & Time: Tuesday, August 23, 10 a.m. ET
- Units: 1.15
- Notes: Based on what we’ve seen in the preseason, Burks isn’t winning the position battle right now. I fully expect him to open the campaign behind veteran WR Robert Woods.
Courtland Sutton Under 950.5 Yards Receiving
- Projection: 925.4 yards
- Odds: -112
- Sportsbook: FanDuel
- Date & Time: Tuesday, August 23, 10 a.m. ET
- Units: 1.12
- Notes: Sutton has gone over this number just once in his four-year career, and he might not have the physical talent or alchemic connection with new QB Russell Wilson to play the D.K. Metcalf downfield role. It’s concerning that Sutton averaged just 19.1 yards on 4.6 targets in his 10 games last year with No. 2 WR Jerry Jeudy (per RotoViz).
DeVante Parker Under 695.5 Yards Receiving
- Projection: 685.2 yards
- Odds: -115
- Sportsbook: DraftKings
- Date & Time: Tuesday, August 23, 10 a.m. ET
- Units: 1.15
- Notes: Even though second-round speedster Tyquan Thornton (collarbone) could miss half the season, that doesn’t mean Parker will have extra targets flowing to him. He will likely still be in a receiver rotation with Jakobi Meyers, Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne, and the Patriots will use plenty of two-tight end sets with Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, which will steal snaps away from Parker and the other wide receivers. On top of that, the Patriots will likely use their running backs regularly in the passing game. And their offense could be limited anyway under new “coordinator” Matt Patricia.
Skyy Moore Under 680.5 Yards Receiving
- Projection: 658.6 yards
- Odds: -115
- Sportsbook: DraftKings
- Date & Time: Tuesday, August 23, 10 a.m. ET
- Units: 1.15
- Notes: To this point in the preseason, Moore has been behind WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman and Justin Watson. I imagine that he will eventually overtake Hardman and Watson — he has the talent to do it — but that might not happen early enough in the season for him to hit the over.
Cooper Kupp Under 11.5 Touchdowns Receiving
- Projection: 10.7 touchdowns
- Odds: -112
- Sportsbook: FanDuel
- Date & Time: Tuesday, August 23, 10 a.m. ET
- Units: 1.12
- Notes: Last year, Kupp had a career- and league-high 16 touchdowns. In the four seasons before that, he averaged six. He’s likely to regress anyway, and the addition of WR Allen Robinson and possible maturation of third-year WR Van Jefferson could make Kupp’s scoring regression more severe.
Tyler Lockett Under 5.5 Touchdowns Receiving
- Projection: 4.9 touchdowns
- Odds: -130
- Sportsbook: DraftKings
- Date & Time: Tuesday, August 23, 10 a.m. ET
- Units: 1.3
- Notes: It’s hard for a guy to catch touchdown passes when he doesn’t have a quarterback who throws any.
Deebo Samuel Under 325.5 Yards Rushing
- Projection: 313.0 yards
- Odds: -112
- Sportsbook: FanDuel
- Date & Time: Tuesday, August 23, 10 a.m. ET
- Units: 1.12
- Notes: Last year, Samuel was wildly efficient with his 59 carries — and he had “just” 365 yards on the ground. I doubt that he will get as many carries or average 6.2 yards per attempt in 2022.
Tee Higgins Over 1,000.5 Yards Receiving
- Projection: 1,122.0 yards
- Odds: -111
- Sportsbook: FanDuel
- Date & Time: Tuesday, August 23, 10 a.m. ET
- Units: 1.11
- Notes: I would love to draft Higgins this year. Last year, he matched No. 1 WR Ja'Marr Chase with 7.8 targets per game (including playoffs). Last year, Higgins went over this number in just 14 games, and the Bengals could be even better this year with an improved offensive line.
Note: In May, I made these four bets after the NFL draft.
- A.J. Brown over 909.5 yards receiving
- Drake London over 739.5 yards receiving
- Chris Olave over 739.5 yards receiving
- Jahan Dotson under 709.5 yards receiving
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