Some days come easier than others while picking out these No Runs First Inning (NRFI) plays. This is one of those days. We have some terrific, underrated pitchers slated to take the mound today against some underwhelming offenses. All of the offenses featured in this piece should be considered bottom-half units, with five of them qualifying for the bottom 10 and at least three I would personally place in the bottom five. With that said, let's look to get hot down the stretch as we approach the final month of the regular season.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
2024 NRFI Record: 47-40 (+0.67 Units)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
Starting Pitchers: Jared Jones vs. Justin Steele
Rookie right-handed pitcher Jared Jones returns to the mound for the Pirates for the first time since early July due to an injury stint with a lat strain, but that doesn't scare me away from backing him in the opening frame. What we saw from Jones before that was electric, as his 94th percentile fastball velocity helped him to a 76th percentile K%, 81st percentile chase% and 91st percentile whiff%.
His xERA of 3.75 sits above the 60th percentile, as does his xBA of 0.229, and his walk rate sits comfortably among the top half of pitchers. Jones also draws a rather favorable matchup against a Cubs team ranked in the bottom half of the league in batting average (AVG), slugging rate (SLG), OPS and home runs. They will also be in their inferior offensive splits against Jones tonight, as their numbers take a dip against righties.
Southpaw Justin Steele will take the opposing mound this evening, putting together another outstanding season at the top of the Cubs’ rotation. His 3.07 ERA and 1.07 WHIP are both elite, with a 93rd percentile xERA of 2.75 and 83rd percentile xBA of 0.214 suggesting he might even be getting unlucky. His success has come a little differently than that of Jones, as he has been incredible at limiting hard contact - ranking above the 85th percentile in barrel%, average exit velocity and hard-hit%.
Steele still managed to rack up strikeouts at a top-third clip and his walk rate of 6.3% puts him in the top quartile of pitchers. Steele faces a Pirates offense that leaves a lot to be desired, as they rank 23rd or worse in AVG, on-base percentage (OBP), SLG, OPS and home runs. I expect him to have a ton of success tonight. I don't see many runs being scored on either side in this game.
Pick: NRFI (-125 @ Bet365, BetMGM)
Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers: Garrett Crochet vs. Andrew Heaney
If you've followed these articles throughout the season you know lefty Garrett Crochet must be pitching if I'm backing the White Sox in any form. Crochet's 3.61 ERA is nowhere indicative of just how good he's been, as his 92nd percentile xERA of 2.81 and 90th percentile xBA of 0.205 are much more accurate representations. He's been among the elite in terms of swing-and-miss stuff, grading out in the 87th percentile in chase % with a whiff% and K% that both rank above the 90th percentile.
Crochet’s average exit velocity falls just shy of the 70th percentile, with a hard-hit% that ranks among the top half of pitchers and a ground ball% that sits in the top third. It's a good thing the Rangers caught lightning in a bottle to win the World Series last season because they have fallen off a cliff this year. They rank in the bottom 10 in AVG, OBP, OPS and SLG and just 19th overall in home runs. I don't see them having much success against Crochet tonight.
While Rangers starter Andrew Heaney is certainly not on the same level as Crochet, he does rank around league average in terms of xERA, xBA, K% and barrel%. His whiff% is very respectable in the 64th percentile, with a 72nd percentile walk rate and an 80th percentile chase%. This play is more about the abysmal White Sox offense, which ranks dead-last in home runs, OPB, OPS and SLG with the second-worst AVG. Their power numbers also take a slight dip against lefties, which will only help Heaney out in this one.
Pick: NRFI (-125 @ DraftKings Sportsbook, Bet365, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook)
Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Starting Pitchers: Logan Gilbert vs. Jeffrey Springs
Logan Gilbert's 7-10 record is insane when you consider how dominant he has been this season, in my opinion taking the reigns as the ace of a loaded Mariners rotation. His xERA of 3.22 sits in the 80th percentile and mirrors his actual ERA, with an incredible WHIP of 0.91 and an xBA that qualifies for the 65th percentile. Gilbert's K% and chase% both rank in the top third of all pitchers, with an 84th percentile whiff%.
His barrel% falls just shy of the 70th percentile and his walk rate is a phenomenal 4.9%. Gilbert has a great matchup tonight against a Rays team that sees their numbers take a significant drop against righties, which also ranks bottom-10 in AVG, OBP, OPS, SLG and home runs.
Rays lefty Jeffrey Springs is a guy I'll continue to look to back as he returns to form from injury, due to just how awesome he has been in seasons past. While he just got touched up a bit in his previous outing, his two starts before that were really good, as he allowed just two earned runs combined in 10 innings while striking out 15 batters against two really good offenses in the Diamondbacks and Orioles.
He doesn't quite have a large enough sample size to qualify for rankings concerning his advanced numbers, but his chase% and whiff% both sit right at 30%, and he hasn't been allowing the free pass at a high rate. Springs also has a favorable matchup tonight against a Mariners offense that has let down more than just Logan Gilbert this season, as they rank bottom-five in AVG, OBP, OPS and SLG with worse splits against righties than lefties.
Pick: NRFI: (-150 @ Caesars Sportsbook)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:
