As we continue through this second week of September, several teams are losing ground in what were once tight division races. Only one of the six division races are separated by three or fewer games (AL East), and even the AL wild card race has loosened a bit, as no team is within three games of the final wild card spot. However, the National League wild card race should have plenty of excitement down the stretch, as two NL East teams (the Braves and Mets) are tied for the final playoff spot entering the day.
Read on to find out which teams are involved in our top MLB picks for Wednesday, September 11.
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Wednesday's Top MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
New York Mets (-118) @ Toronto Blue Jays (+100) | O/U 8.5 (+100/-122)
This Mets vs. Blue Jays series finale features a fascinating pitching matchup between a grizzled veteran in Sean Manaea and a budding youngster in Bowden Francis, and I expect an old-fashioned pitcher’s duel to ensure as a result.
Francis was named the American League Pitcher of the Month for August after pitching to a 1.05 ERA in six games, while also posting a 39:4 K:BB ratio in those 34 1/3 innings. BaseballHQ writer Ryan Bloomfield further highlighted Francis’ late-season changes and improvements, and noted that Francis has increased his strikeout-to-walk ratio and CSW% more than any starting pitcher over the last month.
Meanwhile, Manaea has made quality starts in six of his last eight appearances, and leads all Mets qualified pitchers in ERA (3.43), FIP (3.83) and xFIP (4.07) in that span. Manaea also has limited the damage with a .251 BABIP and a 10.1% HR/FB rate in that eight-start stretch, but he has not allowed many balls in play with an elite 25.4% strikeout rate.
The Under was 26-13 in New York’s last 39 away games entering Tuesday, and I expect it to be the right side of the total again in this afternoon tilt.
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-122)
Kansas City Royals (+126) @ New York Yankees (-148) | O/U 8 (-115/-105)
There will certainly be an emotional atmosphere in the Bronx today as the city pays tribute to the events from 9/11/01. But we expect the Yankees to play inspired and rally behind these emotions, and for that to off-set their struggles against left-handed pitchers this year.
New York is five-games under .500 (18-23) against southpaws this season, and now face Cole Ragans, who ranks 15th in the majors in ERA and fourth in strikeouts. However, Kansas City is just 2-2 in Ragans’ last four starts, while New York’s Luis Gil turned in a gem after a near three-week layoff with a one-hit and six-scoreless inning start on the road against the Cubs in his last outing.
New York’s 48-34 record against teams over .500 is by far the best in baseball, and the Yankees covering the runline in 61 of their last 110 games entering Tuesday (+14.75 units/11% ROI) has me confident they can win the rubber match of this three-game series tonight.
MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-148)
Baltimore Orioles (+100) @ Boston Red Sox (-118) | O/U 9.5 (-105/-115)
I cashed in on Boston’s cheap moneyline odds on Monday as part of a 2-0 start to the week, and am back once again to fade a struggling Orioles team that scored seven total runs in their five previous games entering Tuesday.
Baltimore’s myriad of injuries, not just to their starting pitching, but to their lineup (Jordan Westburg, Ryan Mountcastle, etc.) seem to be catching up with it, and it was only a matter of time until we saw the Orioles play average to below average baseball as a result. And if Baltimore is not hitting, I do not have confidence in righty Dean Kremer pitching the team to a victory, as he is coming off an August where he pitched to a 5.28 ERA and 26:15 K:BB ratio.
Kremer has also been lit up for a 10.47 ERA with a 2.082 WHIP in four winless starts at Fenway Park, so Red Sox backers are getting great value in fading a surefire playoff team given who is toeing the rubber for Baltimore.
MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (-118)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.