To close out Week 4 of the NFL season, the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons face off in an NFC South showdown. Both teams are 1-2 after the Falcons got their first win of the season on Thursday Night Football in Week 3, in Michael Penix Jr.’s first start of the season. They took down the Green Bay Packers 35-14. As for the Saints, they’re coming off a 35-27 home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. The Saints allowed two fourth-quarter touchdown passes to former Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins. With that in mind, let’s dive into the best NFL Monday Night Football picks for this matchup.
- More NFL Betting Advice
- NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- Expert NFL Game Picks
- NFL Betting Strategy
- Best +EV NFL Picks
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
NFL Monday Night Football Picks & Predictions: Saints vs. Falcons
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
New Orleans Saints -3 (-102)
The Falcons are coming off a fantastic road win, but this win shed light on just how bad the Packers are right now. Their offensive line is depleted; they have no run game, and Jordan Love is completing passes at well under 60%.
Michael Penix Jr. completed 18-of-25 passes for 256 yards, one touchdown and one interception in his return. This was a quality performance, no doubt. He averaged 10.2 yards per attempt despite a 7.1 average depth of target (aDOT).
The Falcons’ win over the Packers was carried by running back Bijan Robinson, who had 29 carries for 194 yards and two touchdowns.
Taking the Saints -3 comes down to quarterback Tyler Shough’s passing prowess. He leads the NFL in completions and attempts, and the Falcons allow the fourth-most passing yards per game (263). On top of that, the Falcons play a lot of Cover 3 and Cover 4. Against those coverages, Shough has completed 67.6% of his passes.
I think the Saints will win and cover in a high-scoring game.
Tyler Shough Over 255.5 Passing Yards (-111)
I discussed Tyler Shough above, and a lot of that applies to this prop. Shough has thrown for 256+ yards in just one game, but he had 252 in Week 2 and 255 in Week 3 against the Raiders.
As mentioned, the Falcons allow 263 passing yards per game, and Shough has had ample success against the coverages the Falcons primarily play.
The Saints’ defense allows 340.3 yards per game (20th), which could also force Shough to throw more to stay in the game.
Austin Hooper Under 1.5 Receptions (-152)
Through three games, Austin Hooper is tied for fourth on the Falcons in target share (8%). He’s tied with Olamide Zaccheaus, believe it or not.
In Week 3, with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback, Hooper’s target share didn’t increase much; it was just 8.7%. He did catch two passes for 11 yards and a touchdown, though.
The Saints have allowed a lot of production to opposing tight ends, but they’ve faced three really good tight ends: Sam LaPorta, Mark Andrews and Brock Bowers.
Hooper isn’t a player I’d expect to be used often enough to warrant taking the over because his target share is so minimal.
