Welcome to the final NFL betting article for Week 13 from BettingPros! I'm Andrew Erickson, your guide to Week 13's Monday Night Football. In this solo MNF edition, we're laser-focused on the highly anticipated matchup as we continue into the stretch of NFL regular season action. From expert insights on the spread and total to can't-miss player props, I'll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay for Monday.
Get ready, folks-it's time to place those BETS. Let's dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Monday Night Football.
For a limited time, you can save $30 off your first month of Fubo (Try for Free) >>
Monday Night Primer
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos
Sides
- The Broncos are 8-7 ATS on the road from 2023 (6-3 ATS last eight road games).
- They are 9-7-1 as road underdogs (52%).
- The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last nine games as home underdogs.
- The Broncos have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 games.
- The Broncos have won seven of their last eight home games against NFC opponents.
- The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last seven games following a loss.
- The Browns have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 13 games.
- The Browns have lost 10 of their last 13 games.
- The Browns have won eight of their last 13 games as favorites and 9-6 as a favorite.
- The Browns are 7-10-1 ATS in their last 16 road appearances as underdogs and 6-3 as home underdogs (5-2 over the last seven games as home underdogs).
- The Browns have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 home games.
- Cleveland is 10-5 on the ML at home.
- The Browns have won five of their last six home games against teams with a winning record.
- The Browns have covered the spread in seven of their last nine home games against teams with winning records.
- The Browns have scored last in 10 of their last 11 games.
- In six of the Browns’ last seven games, their opponents have scored first.
Totals
- The Broncos rank 1st in red zone defense.
- Six of the Broncos' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Nine of the Broncos' last 16 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Fifteen of the Broncos' last 24 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Denver is 3-2 O/U at home, averaging 39.2 points per game.
- Six of the Browns’ last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Nine of the Browns' last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Twelve of the Browns' last 19 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Twelve of the Browns' last 15 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Browns are 16-12-1 toward the over in their last 29 games.
- Cleveland has finished under their team total in every game this season (except for Week 8 and Week 12, both division home matchups).
- The Browns have lost by an average margin of 19 points in Winston’s two non-divisional starts.
- The Browns are 3-3 toward the over at home (over 42.2 points per game).
- Since the start of 2023, the Browns are 10-5 toward the under at home.
Overall:
The Broncos have covered the spread in each of their last six games as favorites. Bo Nix has been perfect ATS as a favorite this season, boasting a 5-0 record. Denver hasn't lost a game or failed to cover a spread as favorites this season.
The Broncos' defense remains a top-notch unit that is going to present problems for Jameis Winston. No. 3-ranked defense in terms of EPA/play allowed.
Winston is always a wild card for a back-door cover, but Denver isn't the defense that he will be able to do it against. The Broncos are allowing the fewest points per game in the second half of games this season.
But it won't be for a lack of effort. Winston will go down swinging, which is the only way he knows how.
According to Next Gen Stats, the Broncos defense is just 1 of just two defenses to have blitzed on over 40% of dropbacks on both first down (48.8%, 1st) and second down (41.3%, 2nd) this season (Vikings). However, they have blitzed on 29.1% of 3rd-down dropbacks, just below the league average (31.5%). The Broncos also lead the NFL in quick pressure rate (20.2%) due in part to their blitz-heavy tendencies. Winston has averaged 9.7 yards per attempt against the blitz this season, the 3rd-most in the league. He has only been pressured on a third of his dropbacks when blitzed, taking just two sacks (tied for fewest).
Winston has also thrown downfield (10+ air yards) on 41.9% of his attempts since taking over as the starter in Week 8, up 15.0% from Deshaun Watson's rate in Weeks 1-7 (26.9%).
Per Next Gen Stats, the Browns QB has completed 12.8% more of his downfield passes than Watson while also throwing three more touchdowns. Winston has also significantly reduced his sack rate compared to that of Watson, who was sacked on a league-high 12.3% of his dropbacks (Winston: 6.7%).
Even so, I don't envision the Browns offense having the same type of success they had last week at home versus a familiar opponent. Will they get yards? Yes. But points? Consider me skeptical.
Denver's defense top-to-bottom is just too good, even if Winston can get off a few big plays. If the Browns stall out in the red area, Denver will cover the 5.5-point spread with ease.
As for the total, keep this in mind. In the Broncos’ last six games, two have surpassed 44 points. I could very much see a 42-point (finish 27-17 score, etc.), which is exactly what I thought might happen last week. The score was 26-16 last week with 5:30 remaining in the fourth quarter.
The Broncos only totaled 325 yards offensively against the Raiders - nearly identical to what the Browns also did in Week 12.
One of the Browns' biggest weaknesses is against explosive runs, but Denver's backfield hasn't shown the type of juice to take advantage of it.
Cleveland will sell out to sell the run, hence its fourth-ranked rushing stuff rate on the season. Last week, the Browns stuffed 13 rushes at or before the line of scrimmage in their Week 12 win over the Steelers, the most by any team in a game this season. They have now generated 67 run stuffs in 2024, the third-most in the NFL.
They have made contact before the line of scrimmage on 47.7% of rushes. This season, 16.1% of Broncos carries have gone for no gain or loss, the 12th-lowest rate in the NFL.
The Browns defense has also stacked the box with eight or more defenders at the highest rate in the league this season (25.4%) and 6.1% higher than the next closest team (Buccaneers) per Next Gen Stats.
While facing a league-high 99 designed rush attempts with a stacked box, they have allowed a 33.3% success rate (11th-lowest) but have allowed +0.5 rushing yards over expected per carry (12th-most). On 60 designed runs against a stacked box, the Broncos have generated a 31.7% success rate (2nd-lowest) and -0.5 rushing yards over expected per carry (5th-fewest).
Needless to say, Denver projects to become pretty one-dimensional against the Browns’ defense, which can become problematic against Myles Garrett and company.
Props:
According to Next Gen Stats, , former Broncos wide receiver Jerry Jeudy has recorded 12 receptions for 227 yards (most in a two-game span in his career) and a touchdown in his last two games.
Jeudy has caught 5 of 6 targets for 161 yards and a TD (+79 receiving yards over expected) on in-breaking routes over that span. In Weeks 1-10, Jeudy recorded 11 receptions on 22 targets for 178 yards on such routes (-56 RecYOE).
Since Winston took over in Week 8, Jeudy has led the Browns in all major receiving categories. Although the usage is close between him, Elijah Moore, and Cedric Tillman, the former first-round pick by the Broncos has made the most of his opportunities.
Jeudy has gone OVER 58.5 yards in all four of Winston's starts, making it a low bar to pass even against the Broncos’ solid pass defense. It’s also a revenge game for the Browns wideout.
I've seen the Browns give up too many big plays due to broken coverages to pass on a long-shot bet for a Broncos WR. My pick is Troy Franklin. Last week, he added 31 yards on two catches, including a 26-yard reception and 86 air yards, as he saw more downfield shots. Franklin is going to have a big game at some point with all the downfield targets he sees every week. As a part-time player, he ranks 13th in deep targets this season. Against the Browns, who are BEGGING to give up big plays in Week 13, I am very much into his TD odds at +350.
As for the first touchdown odds, I am fading the Broncos backfield. Too unpredictable. And the Browns' run-stuffing defense suggests none of them will score at any point. So, I'd imagine Denver looks to the air, or at least they will drop back to throw in the red zone. Interesting that the Browns rank fifth in QB rushes faced, but they have allowed zero rushing TDs to opposing signal callers. Nix is third on the Broncos in red-zone attempts and hasn't scored a rushing TD since Week 8.
As good as the Broncos are at stopping WRs, they struggle to guard tight ends. They have faced the third-most targets to TEs this season. They sold out to stop Brock Bowers in Week 12, but Cleveland spreads the ball enough that they likely won't hone in on one guy. Njoku has at least five targets in all the games that Winston has started this season, with five catches in all before last week's dud.
My Picks:
- Broncos -6
- Under 42
- Troy Franklin anytime TD (+550)
- Bo Nix 1st TD (+1600)
- Jerry Jeudy OVER 58.5 receiving yards
- David Njoku OVER 45.5 receiving yards
