College Football Picks & Predictions: Friday (Week 11)

Friday’s Week 11 college football slate has three games on its board, starting with an ACC tilt between Florida State and Pittsburgh. After this 7 p.m. ET kickoff, No. 4 UCLA hosts Illinois to try to remain unbeaten at 9 p.m. ET, while Colorado is an 8.5-point home underdog against No. 14 Houston in an after-dark Big 12 matchup at 10:15 p.m. ET.

The point spreads are all +10 or shorter, with the smallest favorite being Pittsburgh at -3.5. Point totals are at 52.5 between Florida State and Pittsburgh, down to 47.5 for Illinois vs. UCLA, and 51.5 for Houston vs. Colorado.

Let’s aim for a profitable outing on Friday night with these three Power 4 matchups on tap. I’ve got a pick to place in each of these games.

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College Football Picks & Predictions Week 9: Friday Best Bets 

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Florida State vs. Pittsburgh 

Florida State’s defense is struggling to stop opponents in conference play lately. The Seminoles are 12th in scoring defense in the ACC, allowing 28.3 points per game, while Pitt is a much tighter defensive unit under long-time head coach Pat Narduzzi, holding opponents under 20 points per game.

Ashton Daniels is the focal point of Florida State’s offense. Their quarterback needs to take on an elevated role, especially as the leading rusher with the Seminoles’ RB1 sidelined due to injury. However, it’s a tough assignment against a Pitt defense allowing just 2.2 YPC in 2026.

Pitt is playing without QB1 Mason Heintschel for the remainder of the season. The Panthers can lean on a run game and cycle touches between its tandem of running backs, exploiting a Seminoles defense allowing 4.7 YPC and 11 combined rushing touchdowns in its previous four appearances.

We’re through a key number at -3.5 on Pitt. However, the Panthers’ defense is the best unit on the field in this game, while Florida State’s defense is a liability, so expect Pitt to control time of possession and stay ahead of schedule with a heavy dose of runs, leading to a convincing win to cover -3.5 as a home favorite.

Pick: Pittsburgh -3.5 (-102)

Illinois vs. UCLA (4)

UCLA is one of two remaining unbeaten teams in the AP Top 25, so expect the Bruins to have a big target on their back against a surging Illinois team that has won four straight games. The Bruins have not faced a tough schedule this year, with their signature win coming on the road against No. 18 Oregon a month ago.

Illinois has a bottom-tier defense in the Big Ten, allowing 23 points per game (11th) in 2026, while UCLA is much more stout, allowing just 14.1 points per game. The Fighting Illini offense is the strength of the team, led by QB Katin Houser, who just threw 3 touchdowns in a win as a home underdog against a tough Nebraska defense.

UCLA’s defensive strength is all across the board, allowing a ridiculous 49 percent completion rate and 2.7 YPC, holding six straight opponents to two or fewer touchdowns. Offensively, the Bruins lean on a rushing attack led by RB Wayne Knight, averaging 6.2 YPC with 13 rushing touchdowns this season.

Illinois is a bit porous with its run defense. However, the Fighting Illini can air it out to stay within a 10-point margin of UCLA. All of the pressure is on UCLA to remain unbeaten, while Illinois is riding a momentum wave via its four-game win streak.

Grab Illinois +10 at -110 odds on the road in Los Angeles tonight.

Pick: Illinois +10.0 (-110)

Houston (14) vs. Colorado

Houston will look to continue its push toward a College Football Playoff berth, going 4-2 in conference play, bouncing back with a solid 31-24 win at home over Cincinnati in Week 10. The Cougars, led by QB Connor Weigman, have the fifth-ranked offense in the Big 12, averaging over 35 points per game, while allowing 21.3 points per game, ranked sixth out of 16 programs.

It hasn’t been a memorable year for Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes. They are just 1-5 in conference play, losing 6 of their previous 7 games, excluding an overtime win against Kansas State in Week 9.

The Buffaloes return home after being held to 10 points against Arizona State. Houston’s defense has shown vulnerability, particularly on the ground, but Colorado has struggled to maintain consistency in its rushing attack.

Weigman and the Cougars’ offense should have a field day in Colorado. The Buffaloes have allowed 12 passing touchdowns in their previous four appearances, while failing to force a turnover in three straight contests.

Houston has moved from -10.5 to -8.5, so there’s value now that they are at a smaller number in the point spread betting market. Meanwhile, the point total has climbed from 47.5 to 51.5, likely due to Houston’s high-octane offense drawing a favorable matchup.

Under 51.5 has won in 7 of the last 10 combined games played by these teams. Let’s take advantage of the line movement and bet Under 51.5  at -108 odds to close out our college football Friday picks.

Pick: Under 51.5 (-108)