College Football Picks & Predictions: Week 7 (Thursday)

Action on the gridiron continues into Thursday night, with 3 college football matchups on tonight’s slate. These Group of Six (G6) games feature East Carolina vs. UAB, Georgia Southern vs. Old Dominion, and Colorado State vs. Texas State, representing the American, Sun Belt, and Pac-12 conferences.

Oddsmakers expect a couple of tight contests with ECU and Georgia Southern both laying -5.5 or less as road favorites. Texas State is a sizable -14.5 home betting favorite, with a massive 69.5-point total. The other 2 games only have point totals set to 47.5.

I’ve found my best bet to place in all 3 of Thursday’s college football games. Each play is worth 1 unit.

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College Football Week 7 Picks: Thursday Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

East Carolina vs. UAB

Two American Conference foes go head-to-head from Protective Stadium in Birmingham, Alabama, when UAB hosts ECU to kick off Thursday’s college football slate. Oddsmakers have East Carolina laying -5.5 on the road, with a 47.5-point total.

Since lines opened, ECU has moved from -6.5 to -5.5. The point total has cratered from 53.5 to 47.5, representing a massive 6.0-point dip.

77 percent of public money is on ECU’s moneyline at -205 odds, despite ECU only averaging 24.8 points per game. That’s 95th in the FBS and barely above UAB. (22.2). The defensive edge goes to the Pirates, who are limiting opponents to 22.6 points per game, compared to the Blazers allowing 25.8 points per game.

UAB is undefeated at home this season. ECU is riding a 3-game winning streak. However, they have been held to 28 or fewer points in 4 of 5 contests this season.

Facing a pedestrian offense, while leaning into a home-field advantage in prime time, I like taking the points with the home underdog. Let’s follow the steam and place a wager on UAB +5.5 for Thursday’s first best bet.

Pick: UAB +5.5 (-112)

Georgia Southern vs. Old Dominion

The Sun Belt will be on display when Old Dominion hosts Georgia Southern as a +3.5-point home underdog Thursday night. The Monarchs have struggled on offense, averaging a putrid 18.2 points per game (126th), while the Eagles are averaging nearly a full touchdown more at 24.8 points per game.

Old Dominion’s anemic offense is hard to back in this spot. Georgia Southern has held opponents to 24.3 points per game, putting them inside the top-6 units in the conference.

Bettors are split on the point spread at 50/50. 75 percent of bets are on Over 47.5 total points. Line movement has gone in the direction of the Under, moving down from 49.5 to 47.5.

We’ve got an Old Dominion offense ranked 126th out of 138 FBS programs through six weeks. Georgia Southern’s offense will likely have some resistance, as the Monarchs’ strength is defense, holding Appalachian State to 3 points in their last outing.

Let’s fade the public and bet Under 47.5 total points between Georgia Southern and Old Dominion.

Pick: Under 47.5  (-108)

Colorado State vs. Texas State

The new-look Pac-12 conference will have Texas State host Colorado State as more than a 2-touchdown betting favorite in the final game on Thursday’s college football slate. The Bobcats have been a high-octane offense that hung 49 points on North Texas in their biggest win of the season.

Texas State is coming off a 31-29 loss on the road to San Diego State. Colorado State plays virtually no defense, allowing 38.6 points per game under head coach Jim Mora. The Rams are focused on offense, where they average 37.4 points per game, which makes Colorado State’s offense a top-25 scoring unit.

The Rams have scored 23+ points in every game played, although they have surrendered 41+ points in 3 straight contests. This includes 115 points in their previous 2 matchups against UTSA and Oregon State, losing by 14 points and 30 points.

Public money is on Texas State to cover -14.5. A ridiculously high 69.5-point total is still drawing 74 percent of bets on Over 69.5, likely due to Colorado State’s non-existent defense.

Texas State has allowed every FBS opponent it’s faced to score at least 31 points this year. Colorado State has enough firepower on offense to keep pace with the Bobcats, even though it’ll need explosive plays to counter its porous defensive unit.

Let’s grab 2 full touchdowns with a top-25 offense. Bet on Colorado State +14.5.

Pick: Colorado State +14.5 (-112)