On Tuesday night, Southern Miss and Troy will meet in a Sun Belt Conference showdown at Veterans Memorial Stadium in Troy, Alabama. Troy is favored by 10.5 points. Below, I explain why Troy’s defense should have no trouble keeping the Southern Miss offense in check. I also highlight two Troy player props. Here are the best college football picks & predictions for Southern Miss vs. Troy.
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Tuesday’s Best College Football Picks & Predictions (Week 6)
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Troy Trojans
Southern Miss Team Total Under 19.5 Points (-115)
Aside from Week 1 against Alcorn State, Southern Miss has been terrible offensively this season. While the Golden Eagles have scored at least 20 points twice against FBS opponents, they have yet to top 21 in a single game. They're averaging just 16.3 points per game against FBS teams.
Meanwhile, while Troy has allowed at least 17 points in every game, the Trojans have yet to allow more than 27. And the team that scored 27 against them is 14th-ranked Missouri.
Troy ranks 37th in yards allowed per game, while Southern Miss ranks 72nd in yards per contest. And when you get more granular, things look even worse for Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles rank 100th in yards per play, averaging just 5.51.
Goose Crowder Under 242.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Goose Crowder has yet to throw for more than 230 yards in a game this season, which almost makes this prop feel like a trap. However, the Southern Miss defense has been solid against the pass this season, allowing just 194 yards per game. That's 50th-best in the country.
And while Southern Miss ranks 70th in yards allowed per attempt, this is a potential weakness that Crowder won't be able to exploit. He's averaging just 6.2 yards per attempt, and with him attempting all but two of Troy’s passes, the Trojans rank 122nd in yards per attempt.
Additionally, since this is expected to be a low-scoring game and Troy is favored by 10.5 points, I don't believe Crowder, who threw 49 passes last week, will come anywhere near that many attempts this week. After all, he had 32 or fewer in each of his first three games.
Gavin Griffin Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-125)
Though running back Jaheim Merriweather has three rushing touchdowns this season, Troy has yet to score a rushing touchdown against an FBS opponent. However, I think that will change this week against a defense that has allowed six rushing touchdowns.
While taking Gavin Griffin at -125, given he hasn’t scored this season, may seem like a high-risk, low-reward play, he's undoubtedly the best rushing option for Troy. This season, he has 54 carries for 259 yards, and he's managed at least 56 yards in every game. While Merriweather may seem more enticing, as he's averaging six yards per carry, 127 of his 209 yards came against Alcorn State.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.