College Football PrizePicks Week 4 Player Predictions (2023)

Last week was hit or miss. We got extremely lucky with Grant Wilson under and unlucky with Garrett Shrader’s over. This is arguably one of the best slates of the season, and there are numerous premier matchups across the board. Let’s dive in!!!

College Football PrizePicks Week 4 Player Predictions

Glossary:

Standard Downs: First down, second and six or less, third/fourth and four or less (Average pass rate is 40%)
Passing Downs: Second and seven or more, and third/fourth down and five or more (Average pass rate is 60%)
PROE: Pass Rate Over Expectancy (Percentage over expected pass rate in situations)

EPA/Pass Att: Expected points added per pass attempt

Bo Nix (QB – Oregon) Over 315.5 Passing Yards

Oregon +15.4% PROE on Standard Downs (8th)
Oregon +3.04% PROE on Passing Downs (55th)
Oregon EPA Pass Rank on Standard Downs (17th)
Oregon EPA Pass Rank on Passing Downs (9th)

Oregon is the exact style of offense that we look to target every week. The Ducks play Colorado and will be looking to make a statement and put an end to the hype. In neutral game scripts, Oregon wants to pass the ball at an elevated rate, and the great thing is Colorado has a PROE rank of 7th on Standard Downs. This is a recipe for a high volume of plays and a possible shootout.

Taulia Tagovailoa (QB – Maryland) Over 285.5 Passing Yards

Maryland +15.3% PROE on Standard Downs (9th)
Maryland +7.9% PROE on Passing Downs (34th)
Maryland EPA Pass Rank on Standard Downs (39th)
Maryland EPA Pass Rank on Passing Downs (75th)

Maryland is looking to replicate what Washington did last week. Maryland is not on the same level of offensive execution as Washington is, but they have similar tendencies when it comes to their offensive attack. Taulia is a more than capable QB and should be able to take advantage of standard down situations.

KJ Jefferson (QB – Arkansas) Under 212.5 Passing Yards

Arkansas -12.5% PROE on Standard Downs (124th)
Arkansas +.1% PROE on Passing Downs (71st)
Arkansas EPA Pass Rank on Standard Downs (45th)
Arkansas EPA Pass Rank on Passing Downs (54th)

Arkansas has an identity that it will not waver from. They want to use KJ Jefferson’s athletic ability to put defenses in a bind. This means his dual-threat ability in read options and RPO scenarios. This tactic is reflected in their bottom-10 PROE ranking on Standard Downs. LSU was torched earlier this season by Florida State, but this Arkansas offense has a completely different strategy of attack.

Sam Hartman (QB – Notre Dame) Over 249.5 Passing Yards

Notre Dame -.08% PROE on Standard Downs (74th)
Notre Dame +3.6% PROE on Passing Downs (49th)
Notre Dame EPA Pass Rank on Standard Downs (3rd)
Notre Dame EPA Pass Rank on Passing Downs (45th)

This is the closest line Notre Dame has had in a game against a formidable foe in quite some time. There is a feeling if they can’t get it done with this roster, will they ever get over the hump? Notre Dame has a balanced offense and competent playcalling. In passing situations, OC Gerard Parker knows that they need to be more aggressive, something his predecessor, Tommy Rees, still hasn’t figured out at Alabama. Hartman is the best quarterback Notre Dame has had since Brady Quinn, and if they want to win this game, he will need to be the star, which he is more than capable of being.

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!