Week 8 of La Liga play gets underway on Friday, as Malaga and Espanyol meet. Below, I highlight what I expect from that match, then I turn my attention to two of the four matches being played on Saturday. Is Atletico Madrid being overvalued against Alaves? And will there be any defense when Real Madrid faces Villarreal?
Here are the best bets for the La Liga games being played on October 9 and 10.
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Best La Liga Week 8 Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Malaga vs. Espanyol Picks
Friday night's game features last-place Malaga taking on Espanyol. While it's been a rough start for Malaga, they've lost just three games by more than one goal, with two of those results coming against Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid.
Espanyol has dropped back-to-back matches to Elche and Rayo Vallecano, two clubs that sit 18th and 12th in the table, respectively. So while Espanyol has seven points and 10 goals for, I can't help but feel a little worried about recent performances when looking at who has the advantage in this match.
I really want to take Malaga to win this match at +175. However, this is a team with just three goals and a -9 goal differential this season. Yet, while I'm avoiding that play, I am expecting plenty of goals in this match.
Though Malaga has struggled offensively, they've scored in two of their last three matches, and they're about to play a team that has allowed five goals in its last two matches. However, shutting out Espanyol is no easy task, as they've scored in every match this season, and should have no trouble against a defense that has allowed 12 goals already.
Pick: Over 2.5 Goals (+105)
Alaves vs. Atletico Madrid Picks
Thanks to Alejandro Grimaldo, Jonathan David, and a superb defensive effort that relinquished just three shots on goal, Atletico Madrid is coming off a 2-1 victory over Real Madrid and sitting in second place in the La Liga table. However, I believe this match is a bit of a trap for them.
On Tuesday, Atletico faces Manchester United in a game they'd surely like to win after dropping their first Champions League match. Is there a risk that Atletico will be feeling too good about their position and overlooking an Alaves squad that is 0-1-2 in its last three matches?
Alaves is tied for the fewest goals allowed in the league, which is exactly why this is the type of team that could frustrate Atletico. This season, Alaves has held opponents to one or fewer goals in five of seven matches. Though Alaves has been held scoreless in back-to-back matches, they've scored 11 goals this season and managed at least one in five of seven matches. With how heavily favored Atletico is, I'm going to take a chance and predict that any other result will happen.
Pick: Alaves or Tie (-105)
Real Madrid vs. Villarreal Picks
Real Madrid is La Liga’s second-highest-scoring team, with 18 goals in seven matches. Though Villarreal sits in the top half of the table, they’ve allowed 12 goals this season, with four of seven opponents scoring multiple goals against them.
However, there isn't a lot of value in backing this to be a high-scoring game. Over 3.5 total goals comes with a price of -140, and if you think that Real Madrid will score at least three goals, you have to pay -133. That's why I'm looking at a first-half bet.
Eight of Real Madrid's last 12 goals have been scored in the first half. And though Real Madrid has only relinquished two first-half goals, Villarreal is a team with five first-half goals in its last four La Liga games.
Pick: Over 1.5 First Half Goals (-124)
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.