Tuesday brings a pair of Game 3 matchups in the National League Division Series (NLDS). With only two games on the slate, it may be difficult to find MLB home run props to bet on. That is especially true with some heavy hitters on the mound and rested bullpens across the board. But here are three players I believe can go deep on Tuesday.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
Drake Baldwin (+595 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tuesday's first game pits the Los Angeles Dodgers against the Atlanta Braves. The matchup features aces Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Chris Sale. These two clashed just over a month ago in a 1-0 pitcher's duel. Drake Baldwin drove in the lone run with a home run. I am betting on Baldwin to come through again on Tuesday.
Baldwin has been quiet in the postseason so far. But the Braves have faced four left-handed starting pitchers in their first five games. That hasn’t helped Baldwin, who has pronounced splits both against right-handers and at home. Baldwin hit 10 home runs at Truist Park versus right-handed pitchers in just under 200 plate appearances. Atlanta's home park had the seventh-highest home run park factor for left-handed hitters this season.
Yamamoto has been somewhat susceptible to the long ball recently. Including Baldwin's homer, the Dodgers right-hander has given up five home runs in his last five starts. Yamamoto has been better on the road this season, but Baldwin has already gotten to him once. He also had another batted-ball event in that game with an exit velocity right around 100 miles per hour (MPH).
I like these odds given all the factors above. I am comfortable playing this at anything above +500.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (+490 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
I have picked Fernando Tatis Jr. to hit a home run in this exact column three times in September. He came through every time. That guarantees nothing this time around, of course. But I am going to keep riding Tatis in what is a good matchup.
Tatis and the San Diego Padres will face Dustin May of the Milwaukee Brewers. May has been up and down and isn’t averse to giving up the long ball. He has given up a home run in three straight starts, and five of his last six. May also has a 5.88 ERA on the road this season.
As I mentioned last week, Petco Park was above average for right-handed power this year. It had a 106 park factor for righties. That was the 10th-highest in the league and notably higher than Coors Field, Yankee Stadium and Great American Ball Park.
Tatis has already taken May out of the yard in their previous head-to-head encounters. With Milwaukee taking the first two games of this series, they might be willing to stretch out May a bit. I believe Tatis will take advantage and hit one out of the park on Tuesday night.
Manny Machado (+525 at Fantatics Sportsbook)
Fernando Tatis Jr. isn’t the only San Diego Padres hitter I expect to hit a home run on Tuesday. I am also going with Manny Machado in this game.
Machado had reverse power splits against right-handed pitchers this season. He hit 25 of his 30 home runs this season against righties. That tracks with Machado's numbers against Dustin May's pitch arsenal.
May throws a four-seam fastball, sinker, sweeper and cutter to right-handed hitters. Machado has a 91.7 MPH exit velocity against those pitches from right-handers. That trails only Tatis among Padres regulars. Machado has 18 home runs and 25 near-homers in 374 plate appearances against those offerings from righties this year. Machado has two lifetime home runs and two doubles against May in their previous matchups.
The veteran third baseman has been seeing the ball well this postseason. Machado has reached base nine times in just four games. He has three extra-base hits, including a home run. I believe Machado has an excellent chance of adding to those numbers on Tuesday. I think oddsmakers are giving May a bit too much credit when taking all of these factors into account. Give me Machado to go deep in Game 3.
