The Major League Baseball season churns ahead this weekend, and we have a loaded 15-game slate to navigate from a sports betting perspective on Saturday. I'm heading to the prop sheet, where I've dialed in on three MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks on the diamond. Here are my top NRFI bets for Saturday, July 25th.
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Saturday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Toronto Blue Jays (-110) vs. Boston Red Sox (-109) | O/U 7.5 (-104/-115)
Starting Pitchers: Dylan Cease vs. Sonny Gray
The Red Sox (53-49) have climbed back into playoff contention courtesy of their current 16-1 run. They'll look to keep things rolling on Saturday when their starting rotation turns over to Sonny Gray. The last-place Blue Jays (47-57) opt for Dylan Cease. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET from Fenway Park in Boston, MA.
With two top-tier starters in Cease (2.67 ERA) and Gray (2.48 ERA) heading to the hill, it's no surprise to see this NRFI priced at -155. I still think it's worth a look, despite having a slightly expensive price tag.
Gray hasn't allowed more than a single earned run across his last four outings (25.1 innings), posting a 1.06 ERA during the stretch. He draws a Toronto offense that's dead last in wOBA (.230) over the last seven days.
Cease has also been in elite form, recording three consecutive quality starts and logging a 1.29 ERA during the 21-inning sample size. Boston is a mediocre 13th in wOBA (.327) during the last week. Oddsmakers agree that runs will be tough to come by, setting a total of just 7.5. Look for both starters to stay hot and keep a clean first inning.
Bet: NRFI (-155)
Cincinnati Reds (-106) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-114) | O/U 8.0 (-115/-104)
Hunter Greene vs. Andre Pallante
The Reds (48-54) took care of business in Friday's series opener, beating the Cardinals (52-51) 4-2 in the divisional clash. Today's National League Central showdown pits Hunter Greene against Andre Pallante. First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. ET from Busch Stadium in St. Louis, MO.
Pallante (4.02 ERA) should find success in this spot against the Reds. The right-hander has limited Cincinnati's current roster to a slash line of .227/.301/.364 in 132 head-to-head at-bats. This includes the Reds' big guns of Elly De La Cruz (5-for-23), Sal Stewart (0-for-3) and JJ Bleday (0-for-3), who are a combined 5-for-29 (.172) against Pallante.
As for Greene (6.06 ERA), he has looked much sharper following his ugly season debut against the Orioles (eight earned runs in 3.1 innings) on July 4th.
The 26-year-old hurler has recorded two consecutive quality starts since then, racking up 19 strikeouts in 13 innings. He'll take on a Red Birds offense that's just 29th in wOBA (.258) and ISO (.064) over the last week. St. Louis has been the fourth-best NRFI team this season at 55-48 (53%). Let's play the prop bet today in The Lou.
Bet: NRFI (-120)
Seattle Mariners (-114) vs. Texas Rangers (-105) | O/U 7.5 (-103/-117)
Starting Pitchers: Bryan Woo vs. Nathan Eovaldi
The American League West race is tight heading into the weekend, with the Rangers (52-51) holding a slim 1.5-game lead over the second-place Mariners (51-53). Bryan Woo gets the nod for the M's today, while the Rangers counter with Nathan Eovaldi. This divisional matchup is slated for 7:15 p.m. ET from Globe Life Field in Arlington, TX.
I'll play the NRFI in this contest featuring two pitching-first organizations. Considering the stakes are high and the teams are jockeying for playoff positioning, I expect both of these hurlers to be locked in.
Nathan Eovaldi has limited Seattle's current roster to a slash line of .224/.270/.349 over 152 at-bats. The Mariners' key hitters of Randy Arozarena (5-for-39), Dominic Canzone (3-for-9), Julio Rodriguez (9-for-24) and Cal Raleigh (5-for-20) are a combined 22-for-92 (.239) against Eovaldi.
As for Woo, he has held the Rangers to 14-for-77 (.182) in the head-to-head department. The right-hander has conceded three or fewer earned runs in four of his last five outings. Add in that the M's are the ninth-best NRFI team this season at 54-50 (52%), and I'd say there's a decent chance we go scoreless in the first. Let's play the NRFI.
Bet: NRFI (-130)
