The Guardians will look to win a second consecutive game in Chicago and force a Game 5 in Cleveland on Saturday. Below, I explain why this will be a very low-scoring game that either team can win. Here are the best MLB picks for Guardians vs. White Sox.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Thursday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Cleveland Guardians at Chicago Sox
Though he picked up the loss in Game 1 of this series, Parker Messick has been solid against the White Sox this season. In five starts against them, he's allowed no more than three earned runs, and the White Sox have finished each of those games with three runs or fewer.
When you look at the White Sox’s career numbers against him, Messick has held them to just a .215 batting average. He's allowed only 10 earned runs in 107 at-bats, with 34 strikeouts. While the White Sox have hit five home runs off of him, that's really the only stat that supports the White Sox scoring at all in this game.
The White Sox hold a 2-1 series lead, but they haven't scored more than four runs in a single game, scoring just three runs twice in this series. And even if Messick does allow a run or two, I still don't love the White Sox’s offense in this game, as they have scored just five runs in 17 innings against the Guardians’ bullpen this series.
I don't have much faith in the White Sox, but I'm not feeling very good about the Guardians' hitters in this game either. In Game 1, Hagen Smith made quick work of the top of the lineup, retiring the Guardians' first eight batters in order.
The Guardians have recorded just two hits in 27 at-bats against Smith, for a batting average of .074. The only issue is that Smith tends to lose control of his pitches. He's walked nine of the 36 Guardians he's faced, meaning there's a definite chance he could allow runners on base early.
However, Smith has never allowed a run to the Guardians. And while the Guardians are 5-for-25 with runners in scoring position in this series, they were 0-for-8 through the first two games. The White Sox’s bullpen may relinquish runs, but Smith won't give up anything in the first inning. Neither will Messick, making a No Runs First Inning (NRFI) wager attractive.
Picks: White Sox Team Total Under 3.5 Runs (-130) & NRFI (-150)
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.