The American League will take center stage on Monday. The Guardians host the White Sox in the first game of the day, starting at 5:00 p.m. ET. The Rays are hosting the Yankees in the second game, starting at 8:00 p.m. ET. Scoring runs might be at a premium today, and that’s reflected in the following bets. Check out our top MLB picks & predictions below.
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Monday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
Chicago White Sox (+135) at Guardians (-163) | O/U 6.5 (-122/+102)
The Guardians dropped Game 1 to the White Sox 3-0 on Saturday. Munetaka Murakami did most of the damage, launching a two-run home run in the fourth inning. Colson Montgomery drove in the other run.
It was Chicago’s lowest-scoring output in the playoffs after hanging six and seven runs on the Astros in a two-game Wild Card Round sweep. They could struggle even more to score today.
According to FanGraphs, the Pale Hose had a 100 wRC+ on the road and a 102 wRC+ against righties in the regular season. It was a decent offense, but not a juggernaut.
They have a challenging matchup today. Gavin Williams closed the regular season in good form, and he was outstanding at home.
In Williams’ final five starts spanning 28.1 innings in the regular season, he posted the following stats:
- 2.54 ERA
- 2.81 xERA
- 2.70 xFIP
- 2.74 SIERA
- 1.06 WHIP
- 10.5% walk rate
- 38.6% strikeout rate
- 18.6% SwStr%
- 35.8% CSW%
- 105 stuff+
- 106 location+
- 112 pitching+
Additionally, in 18 home starts totaling 107.2 innings, Williams spun a 2.84 ERA, 2.64 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, 7.6% walk rate and 34.7% strikeout rate.
Cleveland’s bullpen is also an asset. They ranked sixth in bullpen ERA (3.54) in the regular season and allowed only one run in 4.2 innings against the White Sox in Game 1.
After scoring three runs in the first game, a step back against Williams and Cleveland’s bullpen today makes their team total under runs an enticing bet at plus-money odds.
Pick: White Sox Team Total Under 2.5 Runs (+105)
New York Yankees (-131) at Rays (+109) | O/U 6.5 (-115/-105)
Cam Schlittler had an exceptional regular season, with the following numbers in 33 starts and 193.2 innings:
- 1.95 ERA
- 2.85 xERA
- 2.86 xFIP
- 3.18 SIERA
- 0.92 WHIP
- 6.4% walk rate
- 31.4% strikeout rate
- 13.9% SwStr%
- 28.8% CSW%
- 113 stuff+
- 102 location+
- 114 pitching+
Schlittler did his best work on the road. In 17 road starts spanning 109 innings, Schlittler posted a 1.16 ERA, 2.68 xFIP, 0.74 WHIP, 5.6% walk rate and 31.4% strikeout rate.
The Yankees ace didn’t waste any time asserting his dominance in the playoffs, either. Schlittler threw 6.1 innings of scoreless baseball, with two hits allowed, one walk and 10 strikeouts.
Freddy Peralta had a forgettable regular season. He pitched better for the Rays after they traded for him than he did for the Mets, though. Peralta had a 3.25 ERA, 3.74 xERA, 4.62 xFIP and 4.44 SIERA in 10 starts for Tampa Bay. The ERA estimators provide a reason for pause, but he closed the regular season on a good note.
Peralta amassed the following stats in his last five regular-season starts spanning 28 innings:
- 0.96 ERA
- 2.93 xERA
- 4.47 xFIP
- 4.35 SIERA
- 0.89 WHIP
- 8.3% walk rate
- 21.1% strikeout rate
- 10% SwStr%
- 21.3% CSW%
- 102 stuff+
- 114 location+
- 116 pitching+
Peralta’s ERA and xERA were sparkling, and his pitch modeling was stellar. He allowed one run or fewer in his last six regular-season starts, and he allowed two, one, zero and one run in his four home starts for the Rays.
Beyond the high-quality starters, the bullpens are good as well. New York’s relievers were second in bullpen ERA (3.15) in the regular season, and the Rays were 14th (3.99). Finally, the Rays are coming off a 1-0 win. Another pitching duel is likely, and -105 for under 6.5 runs looks good.
Pick: Under 6.5 Runs (-105)
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.