If it weren't for the Athletics blowing a two-run lead in the fifth inning of their game last Tuesday, I would be at a perfect hit rate in my MLB picks coming out of the All-Star break. That game still ended in a tie after five innings, though, so I have yet to lose a first five innings bet.
Tonight I'm looking at two full-game plays - an under between American League foes that have really struggled to put up runs since the All-Star break and a National League East Moneyline that's a little bit too short based on the perception of the starting pitchers. Let's keep this train rolling, and hopefully get another two tickets to the window this evening.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees
Ryan Weathers gets the start for the Yankees this evening, in the midst of what has been a spectacular run of pitching performances. Weathers has allowed just one earned run over his previous three starts, totaling 18.2 innings. His breaking and offspeed pitches grade out very well in terms of run value, both ranking in the 70th percentile or greater.
That has contributed to his swing-and-miss metrics, as his whiff rate and strikeout rate both rank among the top third of all pitchers. Weathers adds to that a groundball rate and a walk rate, both of which grade out in the top quartile of pitchers, which is critical for keeping runs off the board.
The Mariners will counter with Bryan Woo, whose 4.31 ERA is not nearly indicative of the pitcher he has been this season. Woo's offspeed and fastball each grade out in the 90th percentile or greater in terms of run value, culminating in an overall pitching run value in the 88th percentile.
Woo’s xERA is significantly lower than his actual ERA of 3.62 and grades out among the top third of all qualified pitchers. His chase rate sits in the 83rd percentile. He has some of the best command in the game with a minuscule 5.2% walk rate, and his strikeout rate and barrel rate are both comfortably above league average.
Offensively, both teams have been pretty anemic for the greater part of the season, especially considering the injuries that currently plague the middle of the Yankees’ lineup. Both squads rank in the bottom three in batting average and in the bottom seven in on-base percentage (OBP).
While the Yankees have the ability to hit for power, the Mariners have not, ranking third-worst in slugging rate and second-worst in OPS. While I expect both starters to have quality outings and go long in this game, both teams also feature very reliable bullpens. The Yankees have the second-best bullpen ERA this season, with the Mariners also ranking in the top 10.
In 22 games since the All-Star break, the Yankees have eclipsed three runs just six times. The Mariners haven't been much better in that time span either, putting up four or more runs in just nine games since the break.
We've got high-quality starting pitchers, two elite bullpens and two offenses that have just been stuck in the mud lately. Put all of that together, and I'm taking the under in this one.
Pick: Under 8.0 Runs (-108 @ DraftKings Sportsbook)
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
Martin Perez is still doing his thing for the Braves, now in his 15th season. He's doing it at a high level, too, as all of his pitch types grade out in the 65th percentile or greater in terms of run value, good for an overall pitching run value in the 84th percentile.
As a soft tosser, swing-and-miss metrics might not be there, but Perez’s ability to generate soft contact certainly is. He has an average exit velocity and hard-hit rate that both grade out above the 60th percentile, and a barrel rate and groundball rate that both fall just shy of the 80th percentile. Perez has been in good form lately, allowing zero earned runs in three of his previous four outings.
The Braves have had some success against Mets starter Nolan McLean this season, scoring five runs in 10 total innings. While McLean's fastball grades out pretty well, his breaking and offspeed pitches certainly do not, as each grades out below the 20th percentile.
That has contributed to McLean’s inability to miss bats at a higher frequency, as he ranks in the bottom quartile of pitchers in terms of chase rate with a bottom-half whiff rate. McLean is also walking batters at too high a percentage, as his 8.8% walk rate also ranks in the bottom half of all pitchers.
Offensively, the Braves are a top-10 unit in batting average, slugging rate, runs, home runs and OPS. The Mets are nearly the opposite, ranking in the bottom-10 in all of those categories except home runs.
When you factor in the time that has been missed by Ronald Acuna Jr. over the course of the season, that gap could be even larger. The Braves have the clear offensive advantage in this matchup, and it's not close.
While the Mets’ bullpen has surprisingly been pretty decent this season, the Braves have been better. Atlanta enters this game with the third-best bullpen ERA and second-best bullpen WHIP, meaningfully better than the Mets’ bullpen in both categories.
When you put everything together, these two starting pitchers are roughly even, but I give the Braves the distinct advantage in both offense and bullpen. Factor in that this game will be played in Atlanta, and that's enough to get me to take their full game Moneyline at anything around -125 or better.
Pick: Braves Moneyline (-125 @ Bet365)
