Tonight, the Padres will look to stave off elimination against the Brewers, while the Braves and Dodgers will battle for a 2-1 series lead in Atlanta. Below, I highlight why I expect Yoshinobu Yamamoto to have success against the Braves. Then I explain why Mookie Betts is in for a solid performance, and why Dustin May is in for another rough outing. Here are the best MLB player props for Tuesday, October 6th.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-102)
While the Braves were one of the 10 least strikeout-prone teams during the regular season, Yoshinobu Yamamoto still put together a fantastic performance against them just last month. In his only start against Atlanta this season, Yamamoto struck out eight Braves in 6.1 innings, allowing just four hits and one earned run.
In his career, Yamamoto has held the Braves to a .196 batting average, striking out 18 of the 57 batters he's faced. That's an average of one strikeout per 3.2 Braves he's faced, better than the one strikeout per 3.9 batters he's faced from every other team this season.
Yamamoto has struck out at least seven batters in six of his last seven starts. He's also been one of the most consistent pitchers in terms of innings pitched, reaching at least six innings in 16 of his last outings. With 182 strikeouts in 185 innings this season, and entering what's been a good matchup for him, this price makes this prop well worth the risk.
Dustin May Over 5.5 Hits + Walks + Earned Runs Allowed (+104)
In his career, Dustin May has held the Padres to a .217 batting average and just 13 RBI in 164 plate appearances. However, May has not been himself lately, and I fully expect him to struggle as the Padres try to avoid elimination.
Since joining the Brewers, May has allowed 37 hits, 15 walks and 23 earned runs in just 10 appearances. That's an average of 7.5 combined hits + walks + earned runs allowed per appearance.
The only real concern with this prop is that May hasn't been pitching very deep into games. He's pitched three innings or fewer in three consecutive appearances, and 4.1 innings or fewer in seven of his last eight. However, this over would still have hit in two of his last three games and in seven of the nine games in which he's pitched at least one inning with the Brewers. One of those seven contests is against the Padres.
Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Total Bases (+143)
Braves starter Chris Sale has solid numbers against almost every Dodgers batter except Mookie Betts. While the Dodgers as a team are hitting just .200 against Sale, Betts is hitting .389 with one home run and three doubles. This has led to Betts posting a slash line of .389/.400/.722 against Sale.
Betts is just 1-for-5 in the postseason with zero extra-base hits. However, he hit .337 in September, with nine doubles and seven home runs. Considering how successful he's been against Sale, I'll take a chance on him at nearly +150.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.