Tonight, I'm highlighting props for Seth Lugo, Jacob deGrom, and Freddie Freeman. Below, I explain why I love Lugo's Under, especially for the listed price, why deGrom is being undervalued against a strikeout-prone offense, and why Freeman is in line for a big night against the Braves.
Here are the best MLB player prop bets for August 25.
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Monday's Top MLB Player Props
(Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Seth Lugo Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+112)
I'm very surprised that Over 3.5 is currently priced at -140 at FanDuel. Lugo enters this start with a very low ceiling, having struck out five or fewer batters in seven consecutive starts. In four of those starts, he struck out three or fewer batters.
Considering Lugo's last appearance saw him strike out just three Athletics in 6.0 innings, I don't have much hope for him against one of the least strikeout-prone teams in the league. The Blue Jays have yet to reach 1,000 strikeouts this season, while the Athletics rank among the top 10 most strikeout-prone teams in the MLB.
Lugo has solid numbers against the Blue Jays in his career, striking out 13 batters in just 41 at-bats. But he hasn't faced the Blue Jays this season. He has just 111 strikeouts in 145.1 innings this year. With all that said, other than his previous numbers against some batters in this lineup, there's nothing to like about Lugo in this start.
Jacob deGrom Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-118)
When deGrom faced the White Sox earlier this season, he struck out six batters in just 4.2 innings. While he was ultimately chased early from that game, allowing seven hits and five earned runs, I feel good about him tonight. Since that start against the White Sox, deGrom has allowed two or fewer earned runs in four of his five starts, and he's coming off an impressive 10-strikeout performance against the Nationals.
deGrom has 157 strikeouts in 126.2 innings. He has struck out at least seven batters in six of his last 10 appearances. Tonight, he not only faces one of the most strikeout-prone teams, but also a team that he has recorded 18 strikeouts against in just 55 at-bats.
The White Sox have struck out nearly 1,200 times this season, which lands them just outside the bottom five when it comes to total strikeouts. While the first game against deGrom may give some confidence in the White Sox, I feel the opposite. If deGrom pitches at least 5.0 innings, something he's done in 11 of his last 14 starts, I'd be very surprised if he doesn't hit this Over.
Freddie Freeman 2+ Hits (+190)
Freeman is hot right now, and he's about to face a pitching staff that he's had a lot of success against. In his career, Freeman is hitting .359 against the Braves. Against tonight's starter, Bryce Elder, he's 4-for-12.
While Elder only allowed four hits in 6.0 innings in his last start, in the one before that, he allowed 10 hits in 5.0 innings. And though he held Freeman hitless in May, Freeman was hitting just .267 at the time. Since then, he's elevated his batting average to .302.
There's also the fact that Freeman has hit safely in five of his last six games. In three of those appearances, he recorded multiple hits. The biggest issue for Freeman will be avoiding striking out. Elder has struck him out three times in his career, and Freeman has six strikeouts in his last four games. However, this feels like a fluke to me, as Freeman has only 14 strikeouts in the entire month of August.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.