It's an Elimination Day for the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians, with Game 5 of the ALDS scheduled for tonight. With the stakes high, we should see a competitive, entertaining game between these division rivals-and a great one for betting on MLB player props.
Our options are limited with only one game on the schedule, but that's okay, since games typically have a few hundred markets. That just means we can focus our research efforts more. After doing just that, here are my top player prop picks for Game 5 of the ALDS, White Sox vs. Guardians.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Player Props
(All bets one unit, unless otherwise stated)
Sean Burke Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120 at FanDuel)
Something seems to have changed in the Guardians lineup in the last couple of games. After striking out 4+ times in the first three innings in Games 2 and 3, it took seven innings in Game 4, and Cleveland struck out only three times. The Guardians are making contact. Burke had decent strikeout numbers this season.
But in an elimination game, the leash will be short. He won’t stay in long enough to record four strikeouts.
Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 Strikeouts (-220 at BetMGM)
Murakami is hitting .217 over Chicago's six playoff games to date (5-for-23). He has struck out 12 times across those six games, with 2+ in four of them. He has 2+ in Games 1 and 3, but just one vs. Williams in Game 2. However, in seven at-bats vs. Williams, he has struck out four times. This isn't a great price for an individual bet, but as an additional leg in a same-game parlay, it's worth taking.
Gavin Williams Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-158 at FanDuel)
Williams cruised past this number in his Game 2 start. He has gone over it in four of five starts against the White Sox this season. The concern is whether he gets pulled early. Short leashes aren’t uncommon in the postseason. However, he had seven in 3.1 innings in Game 2, and the White Sox have struck out 7+ times in the first four innings in three of four ALDS games.
Williams will get at least five innings, making the Over an easy decision.
Patrick Bailey to Record 2+ Hits + Runs + RBI (+160 at FanDuel)
Bailey missed this prop in seven of 12 games vs. the White Sox this season. However, he nailed it in the last two with six in Game 4 (two hits, two runs, and two RBI) and three in Game 3 (two hits and one run). He has faced Burke only four times and recorded a hit. But at +160, this market has value.
