NFL Same Game Parlays & Picks: Texans vs. Jaguars (Week 6)

The NFL's International Series continues in Week 6 with Sunday's contest between the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville is playing a second consecutive game across the pond after last week's last-second victory against Philadelphia. The AFC rivals split last year's series, and Vegas projects a close game on Sunday. Here is a Same Game Parlay (SGP) that I like in this game. I played it on FanDuel, but prices may vary up until kickoff.

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NFL London Same Game Parlay: Texans vs. Jaguars (Week 6)

(Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Leg 1: Under 42.5 Points (-112)
Leg 2: Nico Collins 60+ Receiving Yards (-210)
Leg 3: Xavier Hutchinson – Longest Reception Over 10.5 Yards (-112)

Both teams were top-three defenses based on EPA (Expected Points Added) a season ago. They were also in the top six defensively based on DVOA. While Jacksonville has maintained that level thus far in 2026 (third in both EPA and DVOA), Houston has fallen off a bit. Still, I am going to give them the benefit of the doubt. Head Coach DeMeco Ryans took back defensive playcalling duties last week. The Texans looked like their old selves in last week's 26-3 victory in Tennessee. Jacksonville fell short of 300 total yards in both meetings last season. I expect both teams to rely mainly on their defenses and play the field-position game. I believe the game will go under 42.5 points.

The next two legs of this SGP may seem counterintuitive, given my liking the under on the game total. But several factors have me backing a couple of Houston wide receivers. Jacksonville leads the NFL in both EPA and DVOA against the run. They have allowed no single rusher to reach 40 rushing yards against them in any game this season. Houston's top running back, David Montgomery, is out for Sunday's matchup. The Texans have little running back depth behind Woody Marks. I believe Houston will lean on its passing game in this matchup.

While Jacksonville has allowed the fewest points per game in the AFC, they have given up the second-most passing yards per game in the conference. They are also in the bottom half of the NFL in both completion percentage and yards per attempt allowed. Their bend-don't-break style permits teams to move the ball against them between the 20s. C.J. Stroud averages the fifth-most passing yards per game this season while tying for eighth in pass attempts per game. Stroud is one of three full-time signal-callers who have yet to throw an interception so far this year. Houston will trust him to run the offense, and I expect him to succeed by targeting a couple of his favorite receivers.

Nico Collins is averaging over 80 receiving yards per game this year and has three straight 1,000-yard seasons under his belt. Collins has had at least 50 receiving yards in 16 of 18 games since the beginning of last year. However, setting Collins' receiving yardage mark at 50 yards would keep this SGP below the +400 threshold we are looking for. Therefore, I bumped it up a notch to 60-plus. Asking Collins to clear 60 yards against a pass-funnel defense feels like a pretty low bar. This is still a mark he has hit in most games. Collins recorded over 100 receiving yards in each game versus the Jaguars last season.

Finally, I like Xavier Hutchinson to have at least one catch over 10.5 yards. Houston's acquisition of Marvin Harrison Jr. could limit Hutchinson's overall volume. But I think Harrison's presence is being overstated when it comes to Hutchinson's role. Hutchinson has at least three receptions in every game and is averaging 14.4 yards per catch this year. His lowest yards per catch in a single game is 10.7, and he has recorded a catch of 18 yards or more in all five games this season.

Hutchinson plays most of his snaps out of the slot, and I don't think that will change much with Harrison in the fold. Jacksonville's primary slot cornerback is Jourdan Lewis. Opposing receivers have been targeted 23 times this year. Lewis has no pass breakups to his credit, and receivers are averaging 11.3 yards per catch against him. Even if Stroud targets Hutchinson less than normal on Sunday, we could still need only one grab for this leg to hit.

Parlay Odds: +465