The Dallas Cowboys are 9.0-point favorites against the visiting and winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Dallas’s high-powered offense has one key cog who is off to a slow start, but it’s a get-right spot for him. The Buccaneers will need to lean on their undrafted free-agent rookie quarterback to keep up, which could lead to some pass-catching production, but could also have some consequences that are considered with the first highlighted player prop.
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Best Week 5 NFL Thursday Night Football Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jalon Daniels Over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Jalon Daniels scrambled for nine yards on one of his four dropbacks when he relieved an injured Baker Mayfield in Week 3, with the Buccaneers trailing the Vikings by seven points with 28 seconds left. According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, in the UDFA’s first career start in Week 4, Daniels dropped back 36 times, scrambled six times for 46 yards and added two more rushes for nine more rushing yards, bringing his total to eight rush attempts for 55 rushing yards.
Rushing is obviously a part of Daniels’ profile. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), in 12 games in his final collegiate season, Daniels ran 102 times for 550 yards (45.8 per game) at 5.4 yards per carry. He also ran 95 times for 490 yards (40.8 per game) at 5.2 yards per carry in 12 games in the previous season (2024).
A negative game script for the Bucs as underdogs would create scrambling opportunities for him, and the Cowboys can be gashed by quarterbacks on the ground. Per the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, Dallas has allowed the most rushing yards per game (47.0) to quarterbacks this season, allowing 32.0 per game on scrambles. In their defense, they faced Lamar Jackson in Week 3, Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota in Week 2 and Jaxson Dart in Week 1. Still, Dart ran for 54 yards, Daniels ran for 69 and Jackson ran for 50. Thus, Daniels can be the next quarterback to surpass 43.5 rushing yards against the Cowboys.
George Pickens 70+ Receiving Yards (+137)
I got greedy a couple of weeks ago and chased an alt receiving line for Drake London, and it hit. I’m doing the same this week with George Pickens.
CeeDee Lamb has been the alpha in the passing attack and leads the NFL in receiving yards. Meanwhile, Pickens has 225 receiving yards (56.3 per game), but he’s produced 82 and 75 receiving yards in his last two games after opening the year with 28 and 40.
Pickens has a stellar 31.3% air yard share, but he also has two drops, which undercuts his production. The field-stretching wideout has a golden opportunity to erupt this week.
According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, the Buccaneers have played single-high coverage 66.2% of the time this year, way above the league average of 48.9%. Among Cowboys with at least 40 routes this year, Pickens’ 0.35 target per route rate (TPRR) is the highest, and his 2.30 yards per route run (Y/RR) is also good. On 269 routes against single-high coverage since last season, Pickens has 0.29 TPRR and 3.39 Y/RR.
Pickens should take advantage of Tampa Bay’s coverage tendencies and reach at least 70 receiving yards for the third straight game.
Cade Otton Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-108)
Cade Otton isn’t a world-beater or the epitome of a mismatch in the passing game. Still, he’s third on the Bucs in route participation rate (78.5%) this year. Among seven players on the team with at least 40 routes this year, Otton is tied for third in target per route rate (0.19 TPRR) and has 3.8 receptions per game and 39.3 receiving yards per game.
Obviously, Mayfield started Tampa Bay’s first three games. Yet, Otton’s 28.6% first-read rate led the Bucs last week. Otton was targeted six times and had four receptions for 37 yards.
The veteran tight end has a decent matchup this week. The Cowboys have allowed 52.8 receiving yards per game and 8.44 yards per target to tight ends this year. So, Otton should clear the low bar of 28.5 receiving yards in a negative game script on Thursday Night Football this week.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.