The NFL season is headed into Week 5 after the Atlanta Falcons steamrolled the New Orleans Saints in New Orleans on Monday Night Football, scoring more than 40 points on five rushing touchdowns. To kick off Week 5, the Dallas Cowboys host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and below is our best NFL Thursday Night Football same game parlay (SGP).
The Buccaneers enter the game knowing quarterback Baker Mayfield is out for about seven weeks after suffering a thumb injury in Week 3. They’re 0-4, and a loss here could put head coach Todd Bowles firmly on the hot seat. Backup quarterback Jalon Daniels ran for 55 yards against the Green Bay Packers in Week 4, but threw two interceptions.
The Cowboys beat the Houston Texans 34-30 on the road, and wide receiver CeeDee Lamb caught 17 passes for 189 yards.
Let’s examine the matchup below.
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NFL Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
Leg 1: Dallas Cowboys -8.5 (-112)
The Cowboys have allowed 28+ points in three out of four games, which would initially make me think against backing them at -8.5, but this is a destitute Buccaneers team.
In Week 4, undrafted rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels didn’t play terribly, but he threw two bad interceptions, and the team managed only 14 points. When he was pressured (14 dropbacks), he averaged fewer than three yards per attempt. Daniels did run for 55 yards, which could help extend drives against the Cowboys, but it didn’t matter against the Packers.
As for the Cowboys and quarterback Dak Prescott, he’s been excellent when kept clean in the pocket. This season, the Buccaneers have the second-fewest pressures with 34. When Prescott is clean, he’s completed 80.2% of his passes for 898 yards, eight touchdowns and zero interceptions.
I’m mostly worried about the Buccaneers’ ability to complete drives and score touchdowns.
Thus, I’ll take the Cowboys.
Leg 2: Dak Prescott Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-218)
Through four games, two quarterbacks have thrown two touchdown passes against the Buccaneers: Jordan Love (Packers) and Deshaun Watson (Cleveland Browns). They held Kyler Murray (Minnesota Vikings) and Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals) to one passing touchdown each.
As for Prescott, he’s thrown one touchdown pass in each of the last two games, but had four against the Washington Commanders in Week 2 and two against the New York Giants in Week 1.
I noted it above, but the Buccaneers’ lack of pressure sets Prescott up far too well. It could get to a point where they have a lead big enough to turn to the running game, but I believe Prescott gets this done early in the game.
Leg 3: Jalon Daniels Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
In his first start, Jalon Daniels ran for 55 yards on eight carries. Now, on a short week, Daniels will face a Cowboys defense that has allowed the most rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks (47).
They have the following rushing stat lines by quarterbacks:
- 54 rushing yards to Jaxson Dart
- 69 rushing yards to Jayden Daniels
- 50 rushing yards to Lamar Jackson
This might be the best way for the Buccaneers to rack up yards and get into scoring position.
Parlay Odds: +355
