NFL Week 5 Picks & Predictions: Eagles vs. Jaguars (London)

The NFL is in London this week, with the Jacksonville Jaguars returning to their home-away-from-home to take on the Philadelphia Eagles. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:30 a.m. EST, so don't wait too long to place your bets. But what bets should you make? Here are my top NFL Week 5 picks for Eagles vs. Jaguars.

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NFL Week 5 Picks & Predictions: Eagles vs. Jaguars

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Jaguars -7.5 (-108)

I say this with hesitation because my gut says the Eagles are better than this, and we haven't seen Jalen Hurts bring his 'A' game yet this season. But I don't bet with my gut. No, I follow the data and trends, which point to a solid win for Jacksonville today.

Why? For two reasons.

First, Jacksonville may be overachieving a bit at 3-1, but the Jaguars have won 11 of their last 12 regular season games. The offense hasn't been great (316.5 yards per game, No. 18 in the league), but it is scoring points (26.5 points per game, No. 12). On defense, they surrender way too many yards (354.5 yards allowed per game, No. 25) but have managed to hold teams to 13.3 points per game.

They've been good but not great. That has me a little concerned about covering a 7.5-point spread against a team that should be much better than it’s shown on the field.

That brings me to reason No. 2. Philadelphia is 100% on the struggle bus for several reasons. They will have a hard time getting off of it against the Jaguars. Injuries are a big problem, as they'll be down Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, Jonathan Greenard and three of their starting offensive linemen. The bottom line is they just aren’t playing good football.

That’s a lot to overcome even if things were going well, but they aren't. They average just 269.8 yards per game (No. 29) and 18.8 points (No. 26). With a patchwork offensive line and down two (three if you count A.J. Brown) of their best playmakers, the outlook isn’t promising against a good Jacksonville defense.

If the Rams hadn’t turned the ball over twice and the Eagles hadn’t had a short field thanks to a solid punt return, Philadelphia would have gotten crushed last week. My gut wants to believe in Jalen Hurts and Nick Sirianni. But this season has no data to back it up. The only way they make a game of it is if Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville’s offense implodes.

I don't see any reason to believe that will happen.

Eagles Team Total Under 16.5 Points (-113)

It took almost three quarters to score 17 points against Washington and 2.5 quarters against the Titans. Those are two of the worst teams in the NFL in recent years. They never came close to 17 points against the Bears. Without short fields on three of their four scoring drives, they would have fallen well short of the mark against the Rams.

Add in all the injuries they are dealing with, and the Eagles may not get into the end zone at all against a decent Jaguars defense.