NFL Week 6 Picks & Predictions: Texans vs. Jaguars

The latest game in the NFL’s International Series has a southern flair, featuring an AFC South battle between the Houston Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Texans got on the board with their first win of the year against the winless Tennessee Titans last week, and the Jaguars stole a win against the Philadelphia Eagles, running their record to 4-1. Houston still has their back against the wall after starting the year 0-4, but a win against Jacksonville would turn up the heat on their AFC South foes. Meanwhile, the Jaguars would love nothing more than to keep putting space between themselves and the Texans. The game starts on Sunday at 9:30 a.m. ET at Wembley Stadium in London. Check out my favorite NFL Week 6 picks for this contest.

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NFL Week 6 Picks & Predictions: Texans vs. Jaguars

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Jaguars -2.5 (-110)

Houston’s desperation is notable, but Jacksonville seems to have advantages across the board. According to SumerSports, among 25 quarterbacks with at least 50 plays this season, Trevor Lawrence is seventh in expected points added (EPA) per play, and C.J. Stroud is tied for 13th. Both are playing well, and EPA is only one measure, so it’s reasonable to consider it close to a wash.

Unfortunately, that’s the only wash for the offensive comparison. The Jaguars are tied for ninth in EPA per rush, and the Texans are 21st. Jacksonville is also ninth in success rate, and Houston is 17th.

If there’s a fly in the ointment for Jacksonville’s offense, it’s their pass protection. ESPN ranks the Jaguars 28th in pass block win rate. Houston’s best chance to spring the upset is by getting after Lawrence.

Still, while the Texans entered the season expected to have one of the best defenses in the NFL, they’ve been more exploitable than expected. Houston is tied for 13th in EPA allowed per play and third in success rate allowed. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is third in EPA allowed per play and fifth in success rate. Both teams have quality defenses.

The Jaguars are justifiably favored on what’s technically a neutral field. However, one more factor working in Jacksonville’s favor is travel. The Jaguars played in London last week, giving them more time to adjust to the time zone than the Texans. If Houston gets off to a sluggish start, Jacksonville can make them pay, and the Jaguars should ultimately cover the slight spread.

Over 42.5 Points (-108)

The game’s total is understandably depressed with two quality defenses squaring off. That said, Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud are also above-average signal-callers.

According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Jaguars are 12th in scoring offense (24.6 points per game), and the Texans are tied for 19th (22.0 points per game). Their season-long averages would yield 46 points, giving them some wiggle room to fall short and still exceed 42.5 points.

In addition, the Texans made a splashy trade for Marvin Harrison Jr. He has had a lackluster start to his career, but the Cardinals aren’t the gold standard for player development or for how to run a team. There’s an expression that bad teams stay bad for a reason. Freed from the stink of the Cards, Harrison could shine, reunited with his college quarterback. Even in a limited role while learning the offense, he can provide a spark to the pass-catching corps.

The Texans should also be coaxed into throwing more in this matchup. According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, Jacksonville ranks ninth in pass rate over expected (PROE) faced this season (2.3%). The Jaguars might also be tempted to throw the ball. Houston’s defense ranks fifth in PROE faced (4%).

An uptick in passing from both teams would favor betting the over, and both teams have the firepower to clear the low-ish 42.5-point bar on Sunday morning.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.