Welcome to the Friday baseball slate. The All-Star break is in the rearview mirror, and playoff baseball is on the horizon. I'll continue to be here once a week to provide you with the best MLB picks for the day. Baseball is the best sport to get specific with your bets, and there are plenty of angles to attack any given game, with almost every day offering a loaded slate of opportunities. It's the best time of year.
We didn't have the best outing last time, but we’re still green for the season. Be sure to check out my NRFI articles as well because those have been straight cash printers throughout 2026. Anyways, here are the best MLB picks & predictions for Friday, August 14th.
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Friday's Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Last Time: 1-2 | This Season: 29-28
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Starting with our neighbors to the north, the Toronto Blue Jays host the New York Yankees. I won't bury the lede here - I love the Yankees in this game. Gerrit Cole takes the bump for the Yankees, and he's been stellar of late, spinning a 2.27 ERA in his five starts since the All-Star break. On the road, his ERA doesn't take a big step back. Even if he's shaky, the Yankees have the best bullpen ERA (2.59) since June 1st.
The Blue Jays contend with Shane Bieber, who has taken a step back this season after a late start. He's made nine starts and has a 5.48 ERA (5.21 in his last four starts). But when you look at his home splits, he's spun a 2.86 ERA in his four starts in Toronto this year. Both offenses have really struggled of late, with both squads ranking in the bottom four in run production over the last month. Combining the solid bullpens with what should be good starts (at least by Cole) and poor offenses, I'm hammering the under.
Pick: Under 8.0 Runs (-115 at bet365)
Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
On the other side of the coin, a team that's been cooking of late is the Boston Red Sox. They’ve scored the most runs in the last month of play with a 22-8 record over their last 30 games. On the road, they actually have a better OPS. Pirates starter Bubba Chandler has been fine this season, but a 4.22 ERA isn't anything to write home about. Pittsburgh also has a bottom-10 bullpen right now, so the Red Sox should be able to jump on the ball in this one.
Jake Bennett counters for Boston, and he's taken a step back with a 5.09 ERA over his last four starts with a .283 batting average against. But he's still actually been better on the road this year with a 2.87 ERA. The Pirates are batting .243 against lefties and .262 against righties, so the southpaw has the upper hand here. Combine that with how the Red Sox have the third-best bullpen ERA over the last two months of play, and I'm taking them to cruise here.
Pick: Red Sox -1.5 (+136 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Finally, tonight we have an American League Central battle as the White Sox try to hold on to their 2.5-game lead over the Tigers in the division. Sean Newcomb takes the lead in a bullpen game for Chicago. His 2.66 ERA is solid, but his splits are a little less promising. On the road, his ERA drops to 4.03. Even if he's pitching well, he will likely pitch no more than three innings.
For the Tigers, Jackson Jobe makes his second start of the season. His 4.22 ERA a year ago was fine, but he's very hittable. Comerica Park is also triples alley and a friendly park for hitters. In this game, we have two offenses that have been in the top 10 for run production since the All-Star break. I will give credit to both bullpens being solid units, but I can't imagine the White Sox using their heavy hitters in this one. If they do, they'll save them for high-leverage, late-game situations. I'm just focusing on the early game run production here.
Pick: First Five Innings Over 4.5 Runs (-125 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
