Two top-10 featherweights are headlining a solid UFC Fight Night card from the Meta APEX in Las Vegas. Former bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling is headlining an event for the third time in his UFC career against Youssef Zalal. The card features a ranked women's bantamweight matchup in the co-main event, along with several UFC veterans. It also features a main card matchup you do not want to miss, for which I give a pick below. The prelims start at 5:00 p.m. ET, and the main card starts at 8:00 p.m. on Paramount+. Check out our top UFC Fight Night picks below.
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UFC Fight Night Picks: Sterling vs. Zalal
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Rafa Garcia (+105) vs. Alexander Hernandez (-125)
This matchup is not one that you want to miss. Alexander Hernandez and Rafa Garcia are both tough, entertaining fighters. The oddsmakers think this is an extremely even fight between two top-25 lightweights. Garcia is on a two-fight winning streak, coming off a knockout victory over Jared Gordon in September. Hernandez is on a four-fight winning streak with back-to-back knockouts over Diego Ferreira and Chase Hooper.
Both men are willing to eat punches to land their own, which the stats show. Garcia lands 4.31 significant strikes and absorbs 4.54 significant strikes per minute. Hernandez lands 4.31 significant strikes and absorbs 4.50 significant strikes per minute. It is an even matchup on the feet, but they have slightly different styles.
Garcia is a pressure fighter who moves forward and uses wrestling to keep his opponents’ hands down. Hernandez is a quicker striker and has better footwork at range. They are both gritty fighters who can take damage, but Garcia has shown a better ability in brawls.
The advantage for Garcia is on the mat. He lands 3.13 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Hernandez defends 73% of takedowns. Garcia will use his wrestling in this matchup, which should help him win. His durability is unquestioned, but the difference in this fight is Garcia's wrestling and grappling. I like the slight underdog to get the job done in a tough fight against Hernandez.
Bet: Rafa Garcia (+105)
Aljamain Sterling (+105) vs. Youssef Zalal (-125)
Aljamain Sterling's game plan is always the same. He wants to wrestle and find himself on his opponents’ backs. He uses this position to, of course, find chokes, but he is tremendous at controlling his opponents in this position. Youssef Zalal is a tough opponent to control and get to the mat. Jack Shore was the last opponent to take him down in 2024, and he has fought twice since then. Shore landed two takedowns, but only controlled Zalal for just under two minutes before Zalal submitted him with an arm triangle.
Sterling is an elite wrestler and has tons of experience in the UFC, particularly in five-round fights. Sterling's advantages are his wrestling and experience, but Zalal is an underrated grappler. He is on a five-fight winning streak, and he has won four of those by submission. It is not likely that he finishes the fight in that fashion against Sterling, but he can use them to gain dominant positions on the mat.
The big advantage for Zalal is striking. He is an exceptional kickboxer at range, and he has great boxing in close range. Zalal lands 3.03 significant strikes and absorbs 1.78 significant strikes per minute. Sterling is not the best striker in the world and has an unorthodox style. He gets hit, especially as the fight reaches the fourth and fifth rounds. I think Zalal proves that he is in the top tier of the featherweight division and could potentially find a late-fight knockout. I am betting on his Moneyline at a great price.
Bet: Youssef Zalal (-125)
