The WNBA is kicking off October with a pair of playoff elimination games in the first round: the Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces and the Dallas Wings vs. the Golden State Valkyries. We've already seen the No. 1 seed fall; could the No. 2 and 3 seeds be next?
I'll go over my answer in today's WNBA Best Bets.
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Thursday’s Best WNBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces
Indiana appeared to figure something out in Game 2. Rather than live and die by the three (they attempted 31 3-pointers in Game 1), they dialed it back a notch from behind the arc (21 attempts). Instead, they focused on attacking the paint. In Game 1, they outscored Vegas in the paint 36-34. But in Game 2, they outscored the Aces 58-26.
So, it's a plan of attack they could certainly replicate tonight in Game 3. However, you also have to wonder what Becky Hammon will do. As one of the better coaches in the WNBA, you have to think she'll come up with a plan to counter Indiana focusing on the paint again. Vegas held teams to 37.6 points a game in the paint at home, while Indiana averaged just 41.5% of their points in the paint in road games (about 38-39 points).
But opponents averaged 38.8 points in the paint in Vegas road games, so...
Part of me wants to go with the Fever Moneyline, but I do believe in Hammon as a coach and think the Aces will somehow counter Indiana if the Fever attacks the paint again. Will it be enough to secure a decisive win for the Aces? I don't know. Indiana won the regular-season series with the Aces 2-1 and got both Ws in Vegas.
But with the star power on each side, I expect a great game tonight, decided by no more than a basket or two, making the Fever at +4.5 a solid play.
Pick: Fever +4.5 (-110)
