No matter how much you love your job, sometimes it's nice to have a midday distraction to take your mind off work. Maybe it's a long lunch or a coffee break with the people at work you can stand holding a conversation with. Perhaps it's just a solo walk around the block to get your eyes off your monitor.
For the rest of the MLB season, I'll be offering a distraction from work once a week in the form of my favorite MLB bets from that day's slate. Hopefully, this can give readers a break they need without needing to force any unwanted small talk with their coworkers.
The mid-day slate on Thursday is a bit light, but there's value to be had.
These predictions are from a simulation model that plays every matchup hundreds of times to see which results come up most frequently. Below is my favorite mid-workday play for July 21, 2022.
Tigers ML (Game 1 of Doubleheader)
This play is based on A's lefty starter Zach Logue's struggles against right-handed hitters. Eight members of Detroit’s Thursday's projected lineup on Thursday hit from the right side of the plate. In 23 innings pitched against right-handed batters this year, Logue owns a 1.48 WHIP.
On Detroit's side, probable pitcher Tarik Skubal has held his own against right-handed hitting this year. Despite being an LHP, his 1.27 WHIP vs. righties is better than league average. Oakland is set to deploy a lineup of nine right-handed hitters tomorrow, which lends itself to an unlikely favorable matchup for Skubal.
All things considered, the Tigers' -140 price tag is a great value.
If you're looking for a little more excitement with your afternoon coffee run, Eric Haase's +360 (DraftKings) price to HR is a great value play. Logue has allowed 6 HR's in his 23 innings against right-handed hitting, and Haase hits lefties well enough that my model prices his HR odds at +140 – well below the offered price.
Bet: Tigers ML (-140 BetMGM)
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