College Football Picks & Predictions: Friday (Week 9)

College football is scheduled on most days in the modern era, meaning tonight’s Mischief Night slate is the perfect way to enjoy the sport. Friday has 3 matchups on tap, featuring a pair of G6 games between Tulane vs. Charlotte and Kent State vs. Sacramento State, as well as a Big 12 tilt between Baylor vs. UCF.

Oddsmakers don’t expect a ton of scoring in any of tonight’s action. The point total is set at 48.5 or lower in all 3 games, while Tulane is the biggest betting favorite at -8.5. Despite just beating No. 8 BYU, UCF remains a home underdog against Baylor tonight. Sacramento State is also a home underdog against Kent State in tonight’s after-dark MAC action.

Let’s attempt to build our bankroll heading into Saturday’s main Week 9 college football slate with 3 bets on Friday’s board. I’ve found my favorite bet for each game and will walk through analysis in each, with all 3 wagers worth 1 unit.

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College Football Picks & Predictions Week 9: Friday Best Bets 

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Tulane vs. Charlotte

The two worst offenses in the American Conference meet in Charlotte tonight as the 49ers host the Tulane Green Wave to kick off Friday’s slate at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2. Tulane is an -8.5 point betting favorite with a point total sitting at 47.5.

Charlotte is in a bad spot here. The 49ers have the worst defense in the American Conference, allowing 40.6 points per game, while scoring only 19.1 points per game this season.

Tulane is allowing 24.6 points per game, 6th best amongst 14 teams in the American. The Green Wave face the nation’s second-worst scoring defense tonight, as Charlotte has allowed 140 total points against its previous 3 combined opponents.

Somehow, Charlotte won its first game on the road in Week 7, beating Temple 38-31. Tulane is set to break its season-high in points, scoring 31 points just once, coming off a tough 42-19 loss to UTSA at home.

The best play in this game is the point total. We have a bottom-tier defense and a Tulane defense that also sits 75th in points allowed. 47.5 feels very doable, even for a Tulane offense ranked 120th in the nation.

Let’s bet Over 47.5 in a game that should feature a ton of scoring from both sides tonight.

Pick: Over 47.5 (-110)

Baylor vs. UCF

Flip over to ESPN at 7:30 p.m. ET for the marquee matchup on tonight’s slate when the red-hot UCF Knights host the Baylor Bears as a +1.5-point home underdog. Oddsmakers have set the point total to 48.5.

Baylor just fired head coach Dave Aranda after the Bears blew a multi-digit 4th quarter lead to Kansas in Week 8. Baylor enters tonight’s road contest in a two-game skid, held to 6 points by TCU at home in Week 7.

UCF being an underdog in this spot feels like a trap. The Knights just beat a previously undefeated BYU team 39-31 in 20T at home in Week 8. Now, UCF is getting +1.5.

The Knights have flipped from a pedestrian offense and good defense to the inverse during conference play. UCF has yet to lose a game in Orlando this season.

Baylor has coaching turnover and an offense that can’t score, with a defense that can’t close out games. Let’s side with the public here and bet on UCF +1.5.

Pick: UCF +1.5 (-105)

Kent State vs. Sacramento State

Late-night MACtion from the West Coast is still something to adjust to as a college football bettor. However, that’s the reality for the final game on Friday night, when Sacramento State hosts Kent State as a +7 point home underdog.

I’m focusing on the point total in this spot. Kent State and Sacramento State both sit at the bottom of the conference in offensive production, scoring 14.9 and 15.2 points per game this season, ranked in the bottom five of all 138 FBS teams.

The total hasn’t budged from 46.5 since opening. Trends support the point total under. Each of Kent State’s last 5 October road games played as a favorite have gone under the total points line.

Yes, both defenses have also been 115th or worse. It’s bad offense and bad defense colliding.

This could be a competitive game due to the inability of any unit to be productive on the field tonight. As a result, Under 46.5 feels like the best play.

Pick: Under 46.5 (-110)