Week 10 of the 2026 college football season continues with a five-game Friday night slate. The slate includes multiple power-conference matchups, including Nebraska versus Illinois in the Big Ten. Plus, the American Athletic Conference (AAC) offers an intriguing showdown between South Florida and East Carolina. Let's break down the games with our top college football picks and predictions for Friday night. All betting odds are accurate as of this writing but may change. Good luck.
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Friday’s Best College Football Picks (Week 10)
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM)
South Florida Bulls at East Carolina Pirates
Let's kick off Friday's college football picks with South Florida taking on East Carolina in an AAC matchup. The game total is low, but we're still taking the under. Expect both defenses to set the tone throughout and keep the score low.
South Florida boasts a top-tier defense, allowing only 14.5 points per game (10th in FBS). The Bulls' defense also ranks 10th nationally in expected points added (EPA) per play, 13th in success rate and 24th in total yards allowed per game. South Florida is strong against both the run and pass, while holding opponents to 17 points or fewer in six out of eight games.
Meanwhile, East Carolina also features a solid defense. The Pirates rank 24th nationally in defensive success rate and 37th in defensive EPA per play this season. The Pirates just held Temple to nine points and 249 total yards last week at home. It also held Rice to 12 points and 233 total yards earlier in conference play.
East Carolina is especially stout against the run. The Pirates rank 30th in yards allowed per carry and 26th in EPA per rush. That could be trouble for South Florida's offense, which is much better on the ground. Plus, the Bulls have quarterback uncertainty, with starter Michael Van Buren Jr. possibly out after being knocked out of last week's game.
On the other side, the Pirates’ offense doesn't offer much confidence either. The Pirates are 125th in offensive EPA per play and 126th in offensive success rate. Some of the conference’s tougher defenses have held them in check, and South Florida can do the same tonight.
Despite the low total, the under is still the smart play. The under is 4-1 in South Florida's last five games, and 6-2 overall for East Carolina this season.
Pick: Under 39.5 Points (-110)
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Illinois Fighting Illini
Let's now turn our attention to Friday night's Big Ten matchup between Illinois and Nebraska. Both teams are 5-3 and trending in opposite directions lately. The Cornhuskers are favored on the road tonight and are worth backing to cover the spread.
Illinois is a prime sell-high candidate despite winning three straight ahead of this matchup. The Fighting Illini may be winning, but not comfortably. Plus, the results and opponents deserve some context.
During this win streak, Illinois needed a game-winning field goal to beat Maryland last week and previously barely edged out Michigan State in overtime. Both teams are 2-6 and currently riding six-game losing streaks. The Illini also benefited from facing Oregon without star quarterback Dante Moore.
Conversely, Nebraska is a nice buy-low team amid its recent stumbles. The Cornhuskers have lost three straight after a 5-0 start this season. They held fourth-quarter leads in all three losses, and each was a one-score defeat. The Cornhuskers also out-gained both Indiana and Washington in those losses. They could easily be 7-1 if a few plays went their way.
As for this matchup, defenses should decide the game in Nebraska's favor. The Cornhuskers rank eighth nationally in total defense while allowing just 15.6 points per game (14th in FBS). They're also top 10 in the country in both defensive success rate and defensive EPA per play.
Meanwhile, Illinois has struggled on that side of the ball all year. The Illini rank 127th in defensive EPA per play and 123rd in defensive success rate. Nebraska's offense should be good enough to exploit those struggles.
Pick: Nebraska -4.5 (-108)
