College Football Picks & Predictions: Week 9 (Thursday)

Two FBS matchups fill Thursday’s college football slate. Florida Atlantic visits North Texas, while James Madison looks to improve its resume and stake a claim as the best Group of Six team when it hosts Troy. My college football picks have you covered with my top play from each game.

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Thursday’s Best College Football Picks & Predictions (Week 9)

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Florida Atlantic Owls at North Texas Mean Green

If you like offensive shootouts where the punter doesn’t get on the field much, you’ll love this American Conference matchup. The total is an absurdly high 77.5 points (the season’s highest total), and I’m banking on Florida Atlantic scoring enough to cover the near two-touchdown spread.

Special teams is often overlooked, but it's one of Florida Atlantic's biggest strengths. The Owls have combined for four punt and kick return touchdowns, the most among FBS schools this season.

North Texas is one of two undefeated teams left in the American Conference, but will have its hands full when facing Owls wide receiver Easton Messer. He accounted for 30 points on five touchdowns last week, tying a single-game program record and leading the nation in touchdowns against an FBS opponent.

Messer ranks in the top 10 in the country in receptions and receiving yards per game, while quarterback Caden Veltkamp leads the nation in completions per game (26.8).

Pick: Florida Atlantic +13.5 (-108)

Troy Trojans at James Madison Dukes

To earn a College Football Playoff (CFP) bid as the best Group of Six team, James Madison has its work cut out for it after an overtime loss to App State. From here on out, I expect the Dukes to run up scores and make statements to the CFP committee, starting this week.

James Madison’s 34-31 loss to App State is head-scratching considering it outgained the Mountaineers by 57 yards, created a Havoc rate in the 62nd percentile and allowed just 2.6 yards per rush.

The Dukes were undone by going just 2-of-15 on third down, and I expect running back George Pettaway to return to his usual rushing efficiency and help the team avoid third-and-longs. Pettaway averaged seven yards per carry heading into last week (tied for 17th-best in the country). Among those with 50+ carries, Pettaway ranked in the top two in 15+ and 10+ yard runs and in the top 14 in yards after contact.

James Madison has won 13 straight games in Virginia while covering each of the last five and should be on the right side of the point spread this week.

Pick: James Madison -21 (-105)

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.