We failed to cash a home run prop last night. Let’s get back on track with today’s July 4th schedule. Check out my top MLB home run props to consider for today’s holiday action.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Dominic Canzone (+400)
Dominic Canzone has hit a .315 ISO and a wOBA of .397 against his last 60 righties. He’s hit 27.3% of fly balls, 56.8% of hard contact and a team-best 15.9% barrel rate against righties over the last month.
Today, Canzone faces Shane Bieber of the Blue Jays, who has already allowed a .438 ISO and a .482 wOBA against his first 19 lefties this season. Those lefties have struck out just 15.8% of the time and have hit 38.5% of fly balls with 84.6% of hard contact.
This is a huge matchup for Canzone today.
Seiya Suzuki (+450)
Seiya Suzuki has hit a .254 ISO and a wOBA of .419 against his last 75 righties faced as a right-handed batter. In addition, he’s earned 29.8% of fly balls, 48.9% of hard contact and a solid 10.6% barrel rate against righties over the last month.
Meanwhile, Suzuki will take on Kyle Leahy of the Cardinals, who has allowed a .200 ISO and a .340 wOBA to his last 55 righties as a right-handed pitcher. Leahy has allowed a 13.6% barrel rate and has struck out only 14.5% of righties over the last 30 days. Leahy has also given up 27.3% of fly balls to righties during that time.
Let’s ride with Suzuki tonight.
Caleb Durbin (+830)
There’s so much value with Caleb Durbin tonight. The right-handed hitter has smacked a .222 ISO and a .395 wOBA against his last 19 lefties. Durbin has also hit a 12.5% barrel rate with 62.5% of hard contact against lefties over the last month.
Durbin is in line to face Sam Aldegheri, who has given up 30.8% of fly balls to his last 70 righties. Furthermore, those righties have hit a .167 ISO and a wOBA of .317 with only 14.3% of strikeouts. Aldegheri has also allowed a 9.6% barrel rate with 42.3% of hard contact to righties.
Durbin has turned his season around over the last month. Let’s see if he can continue his dominance against lefties.
