Last week’s 2-1 result made it nine straight profitable weeks with a 2-1 record or better for our MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks. That has us a comfortable 10 games over .500 for the season in that market, and we’re looking to build on our profits with another three-pack of plays.
Though we’re on the wrong side of the juice for one of these plays, the most important thing is that they’re winning wagers, as any 2-1 day or better would turn profits for a tenth straight week.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Sunday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | Season: 37-27 (+3.38 units, +5.3% ROI)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Starting Pitchers: Ranger Suarez vs. Will Warren
New York is 30-18 against left-handed starting pitchers, making them the only AL team at least 12 games over .500 in that split. But Boston is 7-1 in Ranger Suarez's last eight starts, with the only loss in that span coming in a game where he allowed just one run over five innings. Suarez also has decent stats against current Yankee hitters, limiting them to a .236/.265/.379 slash line with a 24.5% strikeout rate and three home runs allowed in 106 combined at-bats.
The only start that Will Warren finished without a strikeout was a June 26 road start at Boston. But he did induce a season-high 11 ground balls in that outing, and I expect him to match zeros and continue the trend of this low-scoring series.
Pick: NRFI (-118)
Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves
Starting Pitchers: Mason Adams vs. Tyler Mahle
Tyler Mahle doesn’t have the best looking statistics on paper, but he is amid a late-season resurgence ever since donning a Braves uniform. In four starts with Atlanta, Mahle is 2-1 with a 1.52 ERA in 23.2 innings pitched. He has also logged a 23:5 K:BB ratio and 1.01 WHIP.
Colorado's pitching numbers are inflated playing home games at Coors Field, but it also allows the league's highest slugging percentage in road games. However, I’m siding with the NRFI in spite of that because of Atlanta’s unfamiliarity with Mason Adams, who is making his second career start. In his debut, he stranded runners on base in three of his first four innings, but didn’t allow a run until the fourth. If he displays better command of the strike zone after issuing three walks, he and Mahle should combine for a clean first inning.
Pick: NRFI (-115)
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians
Starting Pitchers: Seth Lugo vs. Parker Messick
Guardians southpaw Parker Messick ranks in the top six in WHIP and ERA, but he has been especially exceptional down the stretch. Since the All-Star Break, Messick’s .228 opponent’s on-base percentage is fourth-best among pitchers who have thrown a minimum of 30 innings. He enters this start on a streak of six straight NRFI cashes.
I also expect Seth Lugo to match zeros with Messick, even though Steven Kwan at the top of the lineup has posed issues for the righty (.308 batting average, 1.015 OPS). Cleveland was already shut out in this series (its 13 times being shut out is tied for third-most in the Majors).
This wager likely comes down to Lugo improving upon his 4.08 career ERA in the first inning, and snapping his two-start YRFI streak.
Pick: NRFI (-138)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.