Last week’s perfect 3-0 ledger made it six straight weeks of 2-1 records or better with our MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks. That has us a comfortable seven games over .500 for the season in that market, and we’re looking to build on our profits with another three-pack of plays. Though we’re on the wrong side of the juice for some of these plays, the most important thing is that they’re winning wagers, as any 2-1 day or better would turn profits for a seventh straight week.
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Sunday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | Season: 31-24 (+1.11 units, +2.0% ROI)
Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Starting Pitchers: Connor Prielipp vs. Jacob Misiorowski
When the runaway National League Cy Young Award frontrunner toes the rubber, I always look long and hard at the NRFI odds.
Jacob Misiorowski was 9-2 with a microscopic 0.87 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, and a 13.3 K/9 rate in his first 13 starts since May 1st (10-3 team record). He followed up a 12-strikeout performance against the Rockies with his 10th double-digit strikeout game of the season. That brought his MLB-leading strikeout total to 195. Now his 40.6% strikeout rate is on pace to be the highest ever in a single season, and would top Gerrit Cole’s 39.9% strikeout rate of 2019.
Misiorowski is so tough to hit against not only because of the velocity, but because he is tied for the longest release point extension (minimum 500 pitches) at 7.5 feet. Not to mention, his average fastball velocity is 100.6 MPH, compared to the other three pitchers with 7.4 feet of release point topping out at 97 MPH.
This wager seemingly comes down to if Connor Prielipp can improve upon his first-inning 6.60 ERA (his worst of any inning) and .241 OBA (his worst of the first three innings). Still, with Misiorowski locking down the top half of the inning, I have more confidence placing this NRFI wager.
Pick: NRFI (-140)
Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants
Starting Pitchers: Troy Melton vs. Logan Webb
Troy Melton is coming off his second consecutive start of seven scoreless innings pitched with three hits allowed. His 0.93 ERA since June 20 is the best in the Majors among pitchers with 30-plus innings pitched over that span.
Melton now looks to cash a fourth straight NRFI wager in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the league in Oracle Park. He faces a Giants offense that ranks 19th in wRC+ and 22nd in wOBA in home games against right-handed pitchers.
Meanwhile, Logan Webb has made quality starts in three of his last four outings. He has also been fantastic in day starts this season, pitching to a 2.52 ERA with three home runs allowed over 50 innings. He should be up to the task in limiting a Detroit offense that entered yesterday 24-16 to the Over on its first five innings team total.
Pick: NRFI (-160)
Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres
Starting Pitchers: Cristian Javier vs. Randy Vasquez
Cristian Javier turned in his first quality start in his last outing, scattering seven hits over six innings while limiting the Blue Jays to three runs. However, I am selling high on a pitcher who entered that start with a 12% walk rate, 4.94 ERA, and 1.45 WHIP over the last three seasons.
Javier is not a strikeout pitcher, with only one outing of more than four strikeouts this season. That could get him into trouble against a Padres offense that has the NL's second-highest BABIP in home games against right-handed pitchers since the start of July.
Javier was touted by many as a pitcher to buy low on, as he has pitched to a 3.00 ERA and 2.85 FIP with 17 strikeouts over his last 12 innings pitched. Yet, his troubling splits against right-handed batters (.305/.417/.576 slash line) against the right-handed dominant Padres lineup gave me pause to buy low on him for at least this start.
On the other side, Yordan Alvarez will make a plate appearance in the first inning, and this statistic alone is worthy of a YRFI bet.
Yordan Alvarez leads the AL outright in hits, runs, home runs and RBI this season.
The last AL or NL player to finish a season leading a league outright in those four categories was Rogers Hornsby in 1922 (NL). pic.twitter.com/ro7cS1SSOf
— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) August 8, 2026
Pick: YRFI (-135)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.