The White Sox-Guardians American League Division Series (ALDS) has been absolutely electric. It all comes down to tonight’s game. The winner will take on the Rays in the American League Championship Series (ALCS). The loser will pack their bags and go home. Check out some of the top market-based EV MLB picks for tonight’s ALDS Game 5 matchup below. Let’s have a huge night.
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Saturday’s Best +EV MLB Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Sean Burke Under 3.5 Hits Allowed (-117 at Novig)
- Fair Value: -128
- Market EV: +4%
The White Sox haven’t had much success with their starting pitching in the playoffs. It’s very unlikely Sean Burke will even get through five innings. Four is probably his limit, given how things have gone for the White Sox.
Anyway, Burke has struck out 29.4% of batters in the last month and has limited his last 102 batters to a .269 wOBA with only 20.6% of line drives. He’s also given up a .237 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which means the defense has played well behind him.
You can bet on Burke to go under 3.5 hits allowed at -117 at Novig; the fair value is stuck at -128. That’s a market EV of 4%.
Gavin Williams Over 14.5 Outs Recorded (-102 at Novig)
- Fair Value: -107
- Market EV: +2%
The White Sox don’t have much upside in their lineup tonight. The projected lineup has a .130 ISO and a wOBA of .300, with a 29% strikeout rate. Gavin Williams will likely dominate.
After all, he’s added 35.2% of strikeouts in the last 30 days and has held his last 91 batters to a .053 ISO and a .284 wOBA, with 51.1% of ground balls. When the ball is in play, Williams has been a bit unlucky. But I’d imagine he’ll have more strikeouts and fewer balls in play in Game 5 of the ALDS.
We can get Williams to record at least 14.5 outs at -102 on NoVig. The true fair value is -107, giving this a solid 2% positive expected value.
Andrew Benintendi Over 0.5 Total Bases (+125 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: +120
- Market EV: +2%
In the last month, Andrew Benintendi has a .108 ISO and a .280 wOBA, with 32.6% of strikeouts against righties. But that won’t stop me from giving him a chance tonight. His other analytics look good.
Against his last 43 righties, Benintendi has hit 45.8% of fly balls and has limited his groundball rate to 29.2%. He’s also hit 50% of hard contact and has a BABIP of .304. That’s worth a look.
Consider Benintendi to earn at least one total base tonight at +125. The value is +120, giving this wager a market EV of 2%.
