Tonight’s NBA slate has seven games. Here are some market-based +EV NBA picks for those games. Let’s finish off the weekend strong.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Sunday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated | Odds courtesy of Novig
Jaylen Brown Under 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+100)
- Fair Value: -123
- Market EV: +10%
Jaylen Brown has been money from downtown. He’s nailed at least two threes in three consecutive games. That said, he’s facing a Bulls team that has shut down four of its last five small forwards from downtown. Only Brown had success, drilling four threes against the Bulls on November 2nd.
Brown is averaging only five three-point attempts per game, however. Let’s take him to go under 1.5 made three-pointers at +100 on Novig. The fair value is -123, which is a market EV of 10%.
Brook Lopez Under 4.5 Rebounds (+144)
- Fair Value: +122
- Market EV: +10%
Brook Lopez has hauled in 14 rebounds in his last two games. But he hit this prop just 37% of the time last season. This season, he’s hit this line in 50% of games and has averaged about 11.5 rebound chances per game. The problem is that Lopez has missed out on so many chances this season. He’s had games with 16 rebound chances but only secured six boards.
Against the Pelicans, Rudy Gobert’s line was 11.5 rebounds, and he went under as the last center to play them.
I’ll gladly take plus money on Lopez, who isn’t executing well when the chances come his way. With a 10% market EV, I’d make this bet.
Ace Bailey Over 6.5 Rebounds (+150)
- Fair Value: +131
- Market EV: +8%
Ace Bailey has missed this prop line in four of his last five games. Beyond that, he’s only nailed this line in one of his last five games. Why are we taking the over?
Bailey has averaged 33 minutes over the last five games, up from 27.3 minutes over the first four. He’s also seen about 11 rebound chances per game this season and has averaged 7.1 rebounds per game.
At +150, the over looks really good against Minnesota. The Timberwolves have allowed three of the last five small forwards to exceed 6.5 rebounds this season. The fair value for this play is +131, an 8% positive expected-value play.
