Kids will soon be knocking on our doors asking for treats. But NBA bettors don't have to wait until Halloween, though. By "treats," I mean the best +EV NBA picks. By +EV, I mean bets that have a better chance of cashing than the odds suggest, and you can find them on our market-based +EV page.
Such bets are always easier to talk about than find, but I've identified three from today's limited NBA slate.
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Tuesday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
Julius Randle Over 5.5 Assists (+115 at Hard Rock Bet)
Julius Randle is the team's primary facilitator and top scoring threat, so Boston will focus its defense on him. However, in doing so, they give him more opportunities to dish out dimes. Power forwards average 7.31 assists per game against the Celtics; Randle averages 6.3. Randle should get at least six dimes tonight. If you can find this prop with plus-money odds, take it.
Jalen Brunson Under 5.5 Assists (+115 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Yes, Jalen Brunson has averaged over this total in his last four seasons, which is probably why it is set so high, even though he's averaging fewer than four assists per game this season. Teams have been averaging 24.7 assists per game versus the Pistons (tied for eighth).
However, point guards are averaging just 4.7 assists per game versus Detroit. With how well the Pistons are playing defensively to start the season and how poorly the Knicks are playing offensively (they’re the league’s lowest-scoring team), don't expect more assists from Brunson.
If anything, the team will want him to score more rather than facilitate.
Austin Reaves Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+142 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Austin Reaves has been on a roll from behind the arc the last two games after going just 1-of-3 in the season opener against the Golden State Warriors. He went 3-of-5 against the Clippers and 4-of-5 against the Utah Jazz in Salt Lake City on Sunday.
It kind of sounds like the over should be easy to hit, right? So why the +142 odds? I'm assuming it's because the Trail Blazers have been stingy on the perimeter, holding teams to just seven threes per game. To be fair, they've played two teams (the Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings); Phoenix is making 31.9% of their three-point attempts, and Sacramento is at 28.3%.
Portland only looks tough on the perimeter because they've played teams that shoot poorly. The Lakers have the league’s highest-scoring offense (128 points per game) and the second-highest three-point rate (42.1%). Reaves will be fine.
