Welcome to another day of NBA prop betting! We may not hit Bam scoring 75+ points but we've steadily made money all year. As always, monitor any potential news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay informed about NBA player props is to stay up-to-date with the latest news. The second best way is to shop around at different books. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value.
We have a solid nine-gamer tonight to give us plenty of options to choose from after being hot the last two articles. As always, there are still players with questionable tags across the board so make sure to stay on top of the news. Anyways, let's get to the best bets of the day.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be a single unit.
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Thursday Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 3-0 | This Season: 69-51
Quentin Grimes Under 22.5 Pts + Reb (-117 at Caesars)
After Tyrese Maxey went down, Grimes has stepped up starting five straight games. Now with no Oubre either, Grimes will likely get more usage and playing time tonight. However, with Detroit sitting at 15-point favorites as we inch closer to the playoffs, I'm fading the 76ers guard tonight. The Pistons defense has been elite all year, ranking second overall and top six in their last 15 games. They allow the fourth fewest points and boards to opposing point guards and even if you consider Grimes to be a small forward tonight, they still rank fourth lowest in that category as well. The 76ers rebound rate is bottom five in their last 15 games while the Pistons rank top five in that category over the same time frame. Obviously, Grimes hasn't covered this line a lot with the given playing time but even with updated usage he's covered this in two of his last four games. Small sample, I know, but if you give me 50/50 coming into the game on the road against the Pistons, I'm fading the Over.
Bam Adebayo Under 36.5 Pts + Ast + Reb (-114 at FanDuel)
I promise I'm not throwing Bam on here as clickbait but if there is ever a better time to fade someone it's after they put up the second most points ever recorded in an NBA game. Obviously, Bam is getting a lot more attention of late but this is a prop he's failed to cover in 11 of his last 15 games. Milwaukee is a bottom five team in pace of play so Bam's opportunities will be limited and despite the poor defense, I don't imagine Adebayo will end up at the free throw line a million times again. Over their last 30 games, the Bucks have actually limited opposing centers to the 10th fewest PAR, much more impressive than their defensive metrics would suggest. I simply can't imagine Bam running back another game like he had on Tuesday. It's fade o'clock without a doubt.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 42.5 Pts + Ast + Reb (-110 at HardRock)
To prove I'm not a pure SGA stan, I do bet against him when the opportunity presents itself, and I think this is the perfect opportunity. Mainly, Boston has been the slowest-paced team in the league for the whole year as well as across the last 15 games. With that, their defense has ranked third in the league in recent play and they have all the vibes with Tatum back in the lineup and playing well. The total for this game is 216 and after soaring over this total last time out, I'm fading him tonight. This is a prop SGA hasn't covered in seven of his last 10 games and despite the higher profile matchup, I'm a little surprised by how high this combo prop is. The Thunder guard even has a bit lower usage rate, all the way down to 30 percent (33 percent seasonal average) recently so all signs point to SGA coming in under this PAR prop.
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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.