College Football Picks & Predictions: Week 11 (Wednesday)

Week 10 of the 2026 college football season featured some incredible performances. Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr completed 29-of-40 passes for 319 yards and three touchdowns to defeat No. 1 Miami 31-24. Georgia wide receiver Talyn Taylor tallied 140 yards and three touchdowns on four catches in a 42-7 thrashing of No. 10 Ole Miss. The focus now shifts to a Week 11 slate that starts with mid-week MAC action. Here's a look at my college football picks for Wednesday's three contests.

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Wednesday's Best College Football Picks & Predictions (Week 11)

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Buffalo Bulls (6-3) at Ball State Cardinals (3-6)

Talk about escaping by the skin of your teeth. Buffalo has ripped off four straight victories, three by seven points or fewer. The Bulls’ most recent 34-31 overtime win over Miami (Ohio) was fueled by wide receiver Chance Morrow’s 199 yards and two touchdowns on 12 receptions. Meanwhile, Ball State fell to Massachusetts in a 31-30 overtime loss in Week 10. Running back Jalen Bonds paced the offense with 151 total yards and two touchdowns on 22 touches.

Defense hasn’t been the calling card for either team. Buffalo enters Wednesday ranked 91st out of 138 FBS programs in opponent yards per game (396.3) and 116th in opponent red-zone scoring rate (91.67%). Ball State enters Wednesday ranked 129th in opponent points per game (37) and 119th in opponent third-down conversion rate (45.45%). Bank on Bulls quarterback Jason Wright and Cardinals quarterback Keldric Luster having little trouble keeping their offenses on the field.

Buffalo’s positive momentum gives them an edge as a small betting favorite on the road, but I’ll focus on the game total. The over has cashed in eight of Buffalo’s last 12 contests, as well as in nine of Ball State’s last 12 contests. These conference foes have also scored at least 52 points in five of their previous six matchups. That includes a 51-48 barnburner two years ago. Expect the crowd at Scheumann Stadium to have plenty to cheer about as a back-and-forth thriller takes place on the field.

Pick: Over 51.5 Points (-105)

Sacramento State Hornets (2-8) at Central Michigan Chippewas (4-5)

Not every MAC matchup is compelling on paper. Two squads sitting toward the bottom of the conference meet in Mount Pleasant on Wednesday. Sacramento State fell short, losing 20-17 to Toledo in Week 10, despite wide receiver Raiden Brown’s big day (108 yards on five receptions). Central Michigan bounced back from a home loss in Week 9 with a 35-7 win against Eastern Michigan in Week 10. Running back Nick Woodford balled out with 123 yards and three touchdowns on 21 carries.

Keep an eye on the defensive secondaries in this clash. Central Michigan (177.5) and Sacramento State (198.0) each rank among the top 50 FBS programs in passing yards allowed per game. Players like Chippewas defensive back Jaion Jackson (eight pass breakups) and Hornets safety Boogsie Silvera (four interceptions) have excelled. The problem for these rosters comes on offense. Both sides have struggled to move the ball and finish scoring drives, averaging fewer than 310 yards and 21 points per contest.

Those failures have been incredibly noticeable early in duels. Sacramento State has scored only 23 first-quarter points across 10 games. Central Michigan has scored only 16 first-quarter points across nine games. Together, the two teams have been held scoreless in a whopping 12 of their 19 first quarters. There were fewer than 10 total points scored in 13 of those 19 first quarters. A 9.5 line means two separate scoring possessions are needed for the over to cash. That’s a lot to ask of two dismal offenses.

Pick: First Quarter Under 9.5 Points (-110)

Massachusetts Minutemen (5-4) at Toledo Rockets (7-2)

Toledo is eyeing its first MAC title since 2022. The Rockets are the betting favorite to win the MAC (+145 on DraftKings Sportsbook) thanks to a 4-1 start in conference action. Toledo defeated Sacramento State 20-17 in Week 10. Running backs CJ Miller and Autavius Ison each rushed for more than 100 yards. On the other side, Massachusetts snapped a four-game losing streak with a 31-30 overtime victory versus Ball State in Week 10. Quarterback William Watson logged a season-high 302 yards.

Toledo is a two-touchdown home favorite on Wednesday evening for a reason. The Rockets are balanced. They wear opposing defenses down by averaging 184.1 rushing yards per contest (No. 28 in FBS), and frustrate opposing offenses by surrendering 4.6 yards per play (No. 18 in FBS). Massachusetts has not achieved the same success. The Minutemen have averaged a pedestrian 351.7 yards per contest on offense (No. 80 in FBS) and conceded a 41.8% third-down conversion rate on defense (No. 90 in FBS).

I like Toledo to cash the over on its team total. The Rockets have scored at least 34 points in six of their nine battles this season. They reached that mark four times before the fourth quarter even began. Take note that Toledo has averaged an impressive 42.6 points during its eight-game winning streak facing Massachusetts. The Minutemen deserve credit for improving after a 0-12 season in 2025. This squad has still given up at least 34 points in 17 of its past 28 games overall, though.

Pick: Toledo Team Total Over 33.5 Points (-120)