It is best to keep an even keel throughout the grind of an NFL season. That said, my NFL anytime TD scorers last week were close to as good as it gets. I hit three of my four main picks, and my only loss came from a Lamar Jackson injury on the first play of the game. Two of the three players who scored found the end zone twice. And while my longshot pick missed, I did make the case for T.J. Hockenson, who paid off in the +260 range. I’ve profited in seven out of eight weeks this year, so let's keep riding the wave as long as possible. Below are some of my favorite NFL Week 9 anytime touchdown bets.
For those new to the column, my goal is to help you make money, not necessarily pick the players most likely to score. Because of that, I rarely feature players like Jahmyr Gibbs or Christian McCaffrey. They’re far too cost-prohibitive for my liking. I try to curate these picks so that hitting on at least two of the five (including the longshot bet) results in a profit. Use your best judgment and adjust any picks as you see fit.
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Week 9’s Best NFL Anytime TD Scorers
Kyle Pitts Sr. (TE – ATL) | +280 at FanDuel Sportsbook | *0.5 Units
My first Week 9 anytime touchdown pick comes from the league's International Series. I am picking Kyle Pitts Sr. of the Atlanta Falcons to score at least one touchdown against the Cincinnati Bengals.
First, I checked that it will not be raining in Madrid, since Michael Penix Jr. apparently forgot how to throw a football in the rain after last week's disaster. Furthermore, Bernabéu has a retractable roof, so the elements shouldn't be an issue for Penix or Atlanta's passing game.
While the Falcons feature an elite running back (Bijan Robinson) and wide receiver (Drake London), Penix looks for Pitts down by the goal line. Pitts has four targets inside the opponents' 10-yard line in Penix's six starts this season. No other Falcon has earned more than one such look. Even more promising, Pitts has scored touchdowns on all four targets. That will suit him well in a favorable spot against Cincinnati.
The Bengals have struggled to contain opposing tight ends all season long. They have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game to the position, and rank 30th in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) versus tight ends. Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranks both Cincinnati's linebacker and safety groups as the worst coverage units at their respective positions in the NFL. A tight end has led a Bengals opponent in receiving yards in four of the last six games.
Pitts caught at least one touchdown and had five receptions in three straight games before last week's washout. I am willing to give him and Penix a pass because of the weather. Given their recent history outside of last week and a matchup with a defense that is hemorrhaging production to tight ends, I was more than happy to grab this bet at +280. Anything above +200 is a solid play given the factors at play.
Jonah Coleman (RB – DEN) | +105 at BetMGM
Last week's comeback victory for the Denver Broncos featured a running back change of guard. Rookie Jonah Coleman out-snapped veteran J.K. Dobbins 41-13 against Kansas City, and the results were largely positive. Coleman gained 104 yards and scored the game-winning touchdown late. The touchdown came on Coleman's fifth touch inside the Chiefs' 5-yard line. Meanwhile, Dobbins did not earn a single red-zone touch. I expect Sean Payton to continue to feature Coleman this week when the Broncos take on the Carolina Panthers. This is a great spot for the rookie to cement his place at the top of Denver's depth chart.
The Panthers are tied with the Baltimore Ravens for the most rushing touchdowns allowed in the NFL this season. Keep in mind that Baltimore has played two more games than Carolina as of this writing. Lead backs have scored in four straight contests versus the Panthers. That includes multi-touchdown efforts by Bucky Irving and Josh Jacobs in Carolina's last two games. The Panthers will also be without leading tackler Bobby Okereke, who will miss this game with a foot injury. Okereke hasn’t been the stoutest run defender, but his absence should improve Coleman's outlook.
Denver has won four straight games since Sean Payton reclaimed play-calling duties. But their recent winning streak hasn’t come from increased passing production. Quarterback Bo Nix has averaged just 28.8 passing attempts in those four games. During that stretch, Denver has the ninth-lowest pass rate over expected (PROE) in the NFL. I believe the Broncos will stick to their winning formula: Relying on their defense and running game. Coleman's emergence should help set that plan in motion. If the rookie performs as I expect, we may not see his anytime touchdown line at plus money for a while.
Malik Nabers (WR – NYG) | +190 at Fanatics Sportsbook | *0.7 Units
Three different starting quarterbacks have led the New York Giants to victory this season. But no matter who has been New York's starter under center, the directive has been to target Malik Nabers whenever possible. That strategy hasn’t shown up in Nabers' touchdown totals so far. The dynamic wide receiver enters Week 9 with just two scores. However, I believe that the volume will pay off with at least one touchdown on Sunday when Nabers and the Giants square off with their divisional rivals, the Philadelphia Eagles.
New York is expected to play this game without two of its top three running backs. The team placed Tyrone Tracy Jr. on injured reserve (IR), and Cam Skattebo is doubtful with a hamstring injury. Tracy and Skattebo are the only Giants to rush for multiple scores this year, and Tracy has also scored a receiving touchdown. The pair are also the only running backs on the current roster who have carried the ball inside their opponents' 15-yard line this season. When the Giants threaten to score, they will likely rely on J.J. McCarthy and the passing game. I expect Nabers to be heavily involved in the red zone.
While tight end Isaiah Likely leads the team with five touchdowns, most have come from longer and intermediate throws. Likely has only earned two targets inside the 10-yard line this season. Nabers has earned three such targets. Of course, Nabers isn't solely relegated to short throws down by the goal line. He has an elite opportunity share and possesses the skills to break a long touchdown as well. That makes him a solid bet against a poor Philadelphia pass defense.
The Eagles rank 25th in expected points added (EPA) and 23rd in DVOA versus the pass this year. Philadelphia has some popular names in their secondary, including Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. But Mitchell is the only Eagles cornerback who has been solid this season. DeJean and Woolen have each allowed at least three touchdowns in coverage while giving up 13+ yards per reception. Still, there’s no guarantee Mitchell shadows Nabers. I still think Nabers can score against Mitchell, but extra snaps against Woolen and/or DeJean certainly wouldn't hurt.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET) | -105 at theScore Bet
The matchup between Detroit's passing offense and Miami's passing defense is arguably the season’s biggest mismatch. The Lions lead the NFL in EPA in the passing game, while the Dolphins rank dead last on defense. Because of that, you can make arguments for several Detroit pass-catchers, and you wouldn't get much pushback from me. However, I am going with Amon-Ra St. Brown as my preferred pick in this game.
St. Brown has gone four consecutive games without a touchdown. It is his longest scoring drought since the end of the 2022 season. He is also dealing with a rib injury that has limited his practice time this week. But I believe these factors give us a rare buying opportunity relative to St. Brown's touchdown pricing. The star wide receiver is -105 at theScore Bet. That implies about a 51% probability for a player who has scored 38 times in his last 57 regular-season games. Once we factor in the matchup against Miami, I believe St. Brown has a much better chance of scoring than not on Sunday.
In addition to allowing the NFL’s highest EPA per play, the Dolphins give up the league's highest catch rate and yards per pass play. They have allowed the fourth-most touchdown passes despite having faced the fewest passing attempts. Miami plays zone coverage on just over 75% of passing downs, which is above the league average.
St. Brown has perennially been one of the league's best wide receivers against zone coverage. And when Miami does match up in man coverage, I still give St. Brown the edge. Rookie Chris Johnson is a promising cover corner, but I do not expect the Dolphins to shadow St. Brown. The 21-year-old has also not seen many wideouts with St. Brown's savvy, especially down by the goal line. I believe St. Brown will break out of his touchdown-scoring slump and find paydirt in this matchup.
Longshot Anytime Touchdown Bet: Seattle Seahawks Defense | +650 at FanDuel Sportsbook | *0.23 Units
FanDuel Sportsbook lists defenses separately from defense and special teams units for anytime touchdown bets. Keep that in mind if you are considering playing this. It won’t pay out if Seattle scores a special teams touchdown. That is why Seattle's price is +650 at FanDuel Sportsbook, compared to +400 or so on most other major sportsbooks. That said, I think it is worth speculating.
Gardner Minshew Mania looks alive and well after he rallied the Cardinals to an overtime win in Dallas. Arizona later traded Jacoby Brissett to Baltimore, so Minshew will run the show in the desert for the foreseeable future. And while I hate to be the one to throw cold water on a feel-good story, you can’t overlook the difference between the Dallas Cowboys and the Seattle Seahawks.
The Seattle Seahawks trail only the Minnesota Vikings this season in pressure rate. They also rank fourth in the NFL pass-rush win rate. Arizona's offensive line ranks 31st in pass-block win rate. While Minshew looked poised in the pocket last week, the story might be different behind that offensive front, especially with the Seahawks’ defense and the 12s in the equation.
The Cardinals are Minshew's fifth team in five years for a reason. Since leaving Jacksonville following the 2020 season, Minshew has bounced around with middling results. In his last significant action, Minshew threw 10 interceptions and was sacked 29 times in 10 games for the Las Vegas Raiders in 2024. Opposing defenses scored in three of those games. I believe the Seattle Seahawks will make a big defensive play and score a touchdown in this game.
