College football betting expert Scott Bogman will provide his top picks and predictions for every week of college football action. Let’s get ready for this weekend’s games with Bogman’s best college football bets for Week 10. Check out all of his top college football Week 10 picks and predictions below.
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College Football Week 10 Bets & Picks
(Odds and lines via BettingPros’ consensus betting information)
Let’s dive into our top college football picks and leans for Week 10.
BYU vs. Utah
The last two games have been the best of the season for the Utes. The 21-13 win against Houston was a low-scoring scrap against a ranked opponent. Last week, they put the boots to a very strong Cincinnati team, the only team to beat Texas Tech this season, with 42 points in the first half. Utah is undefeated and 7-1 ATS. BYU had its signature win at home against Notre Dame but followed with a letdown loss at UCF and a surprisingly close game against the Sun Devils. The "Holy War" is one of those games where we should "throw out the record book." Utah won every matchup from 2010-2019, and BYU has won the three matchups since 2021. BYU was undefeated SU and ATS before the last two weeks. Star RB LJ Martin is questionable to play and likely to be limited if he does. Martin is likely not going to make a massive impact, and Utah is on a roll and at home. The tickets are going to BYU, with cash going to the Utes, and the line has dropped a point from 5.5 to 4.5, which gives us more breathing room. Lay the points.
Pick: Utah (-4.5)
Boise State vs. Colorado State
Boise State (6-2) and Colorado State (7-1) are a combined 13-3 to the Over. Colorado State's defense is what we are depending on here. They rank 138th in scoring defense (42.4 PPG allowed), 138th in total defense (526.4 YPG allowed) and 138th in defensive efficiency. Utah State's 31 points last week was the lowest total Colorado State has allowed to an FBS opponent, but that was also Utah State's highest total by 10 points! The four previous games for Colorado State had totals of 104, 82, 93 and 105. Boise State had to claw back to win by a point against Texas State last week after allowing 45 points and had its highest total of the season at 91 points. Starting QB Maddux Madsen is questionable for this game after leaving with a knee injury last week. Backup Max Cutforth put up 3 TDs in the last seven minutes of the fourth quarter in the comeback victory. The QB shouldn't make the difference. Boise State will likely put up 50 or more points like the four previous teams did against Colorado State, and they are the most efficient offense the Rams have faced this season. The Colorado State offense is top-30 and will do its part to sail past this total, but we shouldn't need a lot from them to get home.
Pick: OVER 68.5
Fresno State vs. Utah State
We are banking on Utah State's 7-1 record to the Under in this one. Utah State is the proud owner of the only Colorado State game to go Under, and Fresno State just held Oregon State (averaging 42.7 PPG before this) to 22 points. The Aggies have listed their No. 1 WR option, Eli Wood, as doubtful going into this game, which will not help their 134th-ranked scoring offense (16.9 PPG). Fresno State has been able to put up points more recently, with totals of 38 vs. Oregon State (69th in defensive efficiency), 23 at SDSU (98th in defensive efficiency) and 31 against Boise State (83rd in defensive efficiency). However, Utah State is the highest-ranked team in defensive efficiency (46th) that Fresno State will have faced. The Aggies also rank 16th/70 in defensive EPA/play and 29th/70 in defensive success percentage. These offenses rank below 85th in pace of play, and with Utah State QB McCae Hillstead back against Colorado State, the Aggies held the ball for 36:08 and successfully bled the Rams' explosive offense dry. The stars of this game are on the defensive side: Utah State LB Asher Cunningham, who is tied for 24th in tackles among LBs and tied for 26th out of 876 players in PFF defensive grade, and Fresno State edge rusher Dylan Hampsten, who has five sacks and is tied for 30th in missed tackle percentage. This is projected to be a game decided by less than a field goal, and we have the advantage to the Under.
Pick: UNDER 42.5
Other Picks:
- Mississippi State (-3.5) vs Vanderbilt
