Sunday's La Liga slate features five matches, and I'm providing my best bets for three of them. Below, I explain why Real Betis should win a tightly contested match against Elche. Then, I explain what I expect from Celta Vigo vs. Levante and why I don't anticipate too many goals when Atletico Madrid battles Barcelona.
Here are the best bets for the La Liga games being played on Sunday, Nov. 8.
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La Liga Picks & Predictions: Matchday 12
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Elche vs. Real Betis
Real Betis sits well ahead of Elche in the table, but recent results have their moneyline at just +105 ahead of Sunday's match. Real Betis has two wins, two draws, and one loss in its last five matches. The wins are over last-place Malaga and 15th-place Osasuna, so it makes sense that oddsmakers aren't overly confident in them here.
That said, I don't see how Elche is going to score in this game. They've been shut out in three of their last four La Liga matches, and though they're about to face a defense that has allowed nine goals in its last six matches, five of those goals were scored by the incredible offense of Barcelona.
Elche's defense has been excellent in recent weeks, allowing just one goal in four games. Yet, while Real Betis was shut out by Celta Vigo, they have scored nine goals in their last four matches. Ultimately, I think that Real Betis will escape with a one-goal victory in a very low-scoring match.
Picks: Real Betis (+105) & Under 2.5 Goals (+125)
Celta Vigo vs. Levante
Celta Vigo has only conceded 10 goals this season. However, they just allowed a season-high three to Rayo Vallecano, which means they've now allowed four goals in their last three matches.
Despite sitting in 18th in the table, Levante is one of the better offensive teams in the league. They've scored 16 goals, which is the seventh most heading into Matchday 12. Though they were shut out by Atletico Madrid last week, this is a team that has scored in six of its last seven matches. However, the reason Levante has had poor results is because of their defense.
Levante has allowed 21 goals this season. They've conceded multiple goals in six of their last seven matches. Though Celta Vigo has scored only 10 goals, this is a team with multiple goals in two of its last five matches. Additionally, Celta Vigo has scored at least once in four of their last seven games.
Picks: Over 2.5 Goals (-110) & Both Teams to Score (-130)
Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona
The best match of the day pits the top two teams in the table against each other, as Barcelona looks to expand its lead atop the standings. Barcelona has scored 46 goals this season, 18 more than any other squad. In their last match, Barcelona scored six goals against Alaves, marking the sixth time in 11 La Liga matches that Barcelona has scored at least five goals.
However, I can't help but look at the few failures that Barcelona has had when dissecting this match. Against Real Madrid, Barcelona scored just once in a 2-1 defeat. And against Athletic Bilbao, Barcelona scored only twice. The reason I highlight those two results is that both of those teams have allowed only 10 goals this season. That's tied for the second-fewest in La Liga.
The only squad to allow fewer goals than Real Madrid and Athletic Bilbao is Atletico. Atletico has allowed just eight goals this season, shutting out six opponents in 11 matches. Atletico hasn't allowed a single goal in three consecutive games.
However, Atletico's offense hasn't been great of late. The team hasn't scored more than twice in five matches, scoring once in two of their last three contests. I don't expect much more success against a defense that has allowed just 12 goals thus far.
Pick: Under 3.5 Goals (+100)
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.